72 S&P Companies Issue Positive Earnings Guidance, Setting Record
Key Facts
72 companies in the S&P 500 issued positive earnings-per-share guidance for the third quarter of 2026, the highest number since tracking began, according to FactSet's report published on October 5. The firm said its records for such guidance date back to 2006, making the current total the highest over the entire tracking period. A total of 116 index constituents issued earnings guidance for the period. Positive guidance accounted for 62% of that total, representing the majority of companies' quarterly earnings announcements. The record came before the mid-October earnings update, which showed the earnings season had already moved into the stage of reporting actual results and comparing them with analysts' estimates.
The current tally exceeded the previous record of 65 companies, set in the second quarter of 2021, according to FactSet's report. It also surpassed the previous five-year average of 42 companies, according to the earnings season preview published on October 2. The previous ten-year average was 40 companies, also below the current quarter's tally. FactSet classifies guidance as positive when a company's earnings-per-share forecast is "above the mean earnings-per-share estimate on the day before the guidance was issued." When a company provides an earnings forecast range, the comparison uses the midpoint of that range, with the classification determined by where the company's forecast stands relative to analysts' estimates at the time of the announcement.
Alongside company guidance, analysts raised earnings-per-share estimates for index constituents for a second consecutive quarter, according to FactSet's report published on October 7. The aggregate earnings-per-share estimate for the index rose 1.4% during the third quarter, from $88.64 on June 30 to $89.84 on September 30. Energy led sector increases in earnings-per-share estimates over that period, rising 18.0%. Information technology also helped lead the increases, with its earnings-per-share estimates rising 3.5% during the same quarter. For the full year, the aggregate earnings-per-share estimate for 2026 increased 6.2% over the same period, from $340.49 to $361.66.
FactSet had estimated year-over-year earnings growth for the index in the third quarter at 29.5% in its preview report issued on October 2. The firm compared that with estimated growth of 26.7% on June 30, before the earnings revisions made during the quarter. Providing context for the annual comparison, MarketWatch on October 18 pointed to large charges and expenses recorded by Boeing, Meta and EchoStar a year earlier. Those earlier burdens help make the current quarter's earnings comparison look stronger, according to the publication, as growth is measured against the period when the companies incurred those expenses. The effect of charges and expenses recorded a year earlier was thus among the factors the publication cited behind the strength of the year-over-year comparison for current earnings.
Early actual results, meanwhile, showed that 84% of companies reporting earnings beat earnings-per-share estimates, according to FactSet's October 16 update. In aggregate, actual earnings for reporting companies exceeded estimates by 2.6%, alongside the broad share of companies posting beats. The blended year-over-year earnings growth rate for the third quarter stood at 29.0% in that update, as companies began reporting their actual performance for the period. That rate combines reported earnings from companies that have released results with earnings estimates for companies that have yet to report. The blended growth reading was below the estimate in the preview report, incorporating available actual results alongside forecasts for the remaining index constituents.
In markets, the S&P 500 fell 1.1% during the session on Friday, October 16, according to the Associated Press. The Nasdaq Composite posted a larger decline of 2.1% in the same session, as chip stocks faced selling pressure covered by the news agency. The Associated Press attributed some of that pressure to growing concern about how long the artificial intelligence infrastructure building boom could continue. The agency described the concerns as relating to "how long the frenzy of expansion in artificial intelligence infrastructure will last," in explaining the pressure on the sector. Results will continue to flow during the week following FactSet's report dated October 16, 2026, with the firm identifying upcoming earnings announcements from 79 index constituents.