28 Ship Attacks in October Mark Highest Level Since War Began
Key Facts
Attacks on ships reached a record 28 in October since the war began, according to the Associated Press, citing Lloyd’s List Intelligence. On October 30, a Panama-flagged tanker was attacked near Oman’s Musandam Governorate, 1.6 nautical miles from the coast, according to the agency, citing Omani authorities. Oman evacuated 25 crew members, while the agency said it was unclear whether the incident was linked to the tanker fires announced by Iran. On the same day, the Brent contract for December delivery rose $2.76, or 2.4%, to $117.64 a barrel, after reaching $118 during the session, according to Reuters. The tally and the tanker incident highlight shipping risks in the passage, alongside strong monthly gains for oil.
Details of the incident reported by the Associated Press differ from separate reports Reuters attributed to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations organization. In a separate incident on October 30, the organization said a tanker was struck by explosive devices attached by a small boat; it was unclear who was behind the attack. The organization also reported a vessel struck by an “unknown projectile” south of Lavan Island. These accounts do not establish that the incidents were a single attack, while the Associated Press reported that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said a supertanker carrying more than two million barrels hit a sea mine and caught fire. The Guard described it as the fourth tanker it said had exploded that day, but the agency could not verify its account.
Despite the escalation in attacks, oil tankers continued to transit the Strait of Hormuz under U.S. military protection, according to the Associated Press. The agency said tankers carry oil from Gulf producers at night, then transfer their cargo to other vessels in the Gulf of Oman. It said the “night transfer” mechanism overseen by U.S. Central Command helped bring oil shipments from the Gulf back to levels near those before the war. But the restoration of flows came at a high cost in time, money and sailors’ lives, according to the agency. Spot tanker charter rates also rose to hundreds of thousands of dollars a day, while ship-to-ship transfers can take several days.
The strait’s importance is underscored by U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates of typical flows through it. Average oil flows reached 20.9 million barrels a day in the first half of 2025, equivalent to about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. The agency estimated that oil and petroleum liquids flows fell to 4.9 million barrels a day in the second quarter of 2026, from 21.6 million a day in the fourth quarter of 2025, before the conflict began. Pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE offer a partial alternative: the approximate combined capacity of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and the Abu Dhabi pipeline is 4.7 million barrels a day to bypass the strait. That capacity remains below the average flows through the strait in the first half of 2025, according to figures cited by the agency.
Meanwhile, Saudi crude exports rose in October from September, according to two of three ship-tracking firms cited by Reuters. This points to continued crude flows despite disruption to shipping, alongside tankers’ reliance on naval protection and ship-to-ship transfers. Brent ended October up 13.6%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 15.2%, according to Reuters. Oil was on track for its fourth consecutive monthly gain, the agency reported on October 30. But Reuters did not attribute all of the monthly gains to attacks on ships; it cited supply concerns and widening war-related risks as part of the market context.
According to Reuters, traders were watching for a possible escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict after the U.S. midterm elections, while the attack on a tanker in the strait highlighted supply risks. The agency pointed to the possibility of increased price volatility over the following two weeks due to the Israeli election and the U.S. election scheduled for November 3. In market data reported by EL7, Brent closed at $115.81 on October 26, then at $113.1 on October 30. EL7’s month-end close was below the December contract’s settlement price of $117.64, as that settlement related to a specific contract that expired on Friday. Maritime risks, developments in the conflict and elections remained factors traders were watching as the next period began.