28 Ship Attacks Recorded in October as Shipping Risks Near Hormuz Rise
Key Facts
Commercial shipping risks in the Gulf increased during October, with 28 attacks on vessels recorded, the highest number since the war began, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data and analysis cited by the Associated Press. On October 26, UKMTO said it had received multiple third-party reports of a vessel on fire 63 nautical miles southeast of Al Faw, Iraq. The crew’s condition, damage assessment and environmental impact were unknown at the time of the report. This followed an agency alert on October 23 about a tanker struck by an unidentified projectile while outbound through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving it disabled. The tanker’s crew was reported safe, while no assessment of damage or environmental impact was available.
The British maritime monitor said, according to the Associated Press, that October saw the highest number of reported attacks on commercial shipping since March, in the war’s early weeks. The agency noted that some shipping companies may be reluctant to report incidents, making the reported number an indicator that does not necessarily include every attack. In a separate incident, the Associated Press could not independently verify Iranian television’s account that seven tankers had been struck or hit mines overnight. The agency attributed details of overnight shipping routes to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data and analysis, not to an official statement. These details show some Gulf operators continuing despite rising attacks, alongside increasingly complex oil-transfer arrangements.
According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data and analysis cited by the Associated Press, tankers willing to take the risk transit at night through a US-protected corridor near Oman’s coast, with positioning systems and mobile phones switched off. After passage, the vessels transfer their cargoes to other tankers waiting in the Gulf of Oman, and the shipments then continue on to Asia. Ship-to-ship transfers take several days, while spot tanker charter rates have surged to hundreds of thousands of dollars a day. Spot charter rates for transiting Hormuz reached $1 million a day on September 11, equivalent to about $26 a barrel, according to Windward data cited by the Associated Press. Analysts estimated to the agency that the nighttime route carried about 6 million barrels a day or more in September, equivalent to 40% or more of pre-war flows.
The strait’s importance extends beyond tanker traffic: oil flows through it averaged 20.9 million barrels a day in the first half of 2025, equivalent to about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption and a quarter of global seaborne oil trade, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Flows were 20.7 million barrels a day in 2024, according to the agency’s data. Some 89% of the crude oil and condensate passing through the strait went to Asian markets in the first half of 2025, with China, India, Japan and South Korea together accounting for 74% of those flows. The strait also carried 11.4 billion cubic feet a day of liquefied natural gas during the same period, more than 20% of global LNG trade. These shares place shipping disruption on a key supply route for Asian markets.
Oil prices reflected the sensitivity of supplies to regional risks in September, with the average spot price of Brent rising to $114 a barrel, up $23 from August, according to the US Energy Information Administration. The agency attributed the increase to rising attacks on oil facilities and tankers, including attacks that temporarily halted flows through Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline. The agency said the spot price of Brent reached as high as $131 a barrel on September 15, as buyers scrambled to secure nearby supplies after the loss of Saudi exports. Aramco said the East-West pipeline’s capacity rose from 2 million barrels a day to 7 million, while the volume of oil transported through it tripled because of the global energy crisis. The Energy Information Administration forecast that Brent would average $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, with Middle Eastern oil flows remaining constrained during that quarter.
On the political front, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Tehran had not closed the door to diplomacy and that messages were being relayed to the United States through intermediaries. He added that negotiations over the war appeared to have been stalled for weeks, according to the Associated Press. Iran continues to put forward a proposal to end the war and fully reopen the strait within a week if Washington meets conditions that include ending the US blockade of Iranian ports. But US President Donald Trump rejected the proposal the previous month, while both sides acknowledged that indirect discussions were continuing. UN spokesman Stéphane Dujarric called for commercial vessels not to be targeted and for diplomacy between Washington and Tehran, saying: "For the people of the region and the wider world, we need to see this waterway reopened and tensions reduced."
On official forecasts, the US Energy Information Administration set November 10, 2026, as the date for its next Short-Term Energy Outlook. Until then, the agency expects Middle Eastern oil flows to remain constrained during the fourth quarter, with Brent averaging $105 a barrel. Meanwhile, Iran’s proposal to reopen the strait within a week remains tied to conditions including an end to the US blockade, after Trump rejected it the previous month. Baghaei said messages were still being relayed through intermediaries despite negotiations having stalled for weeks. No date for a new round of talks was given in the available information.