Ukraine Strike Targets Russian Refinery With Capacity of 8.8 Million Tonnes a Year
Key Facts
Fire Point said Ukrainian forces struck the Novokuibyshevsk refinery in Russia’s Samara region with long-range FP-1 drones in an attack the company said took place on October 30. The company added that multiple strikes hit the refinery site and that a diesel hydrotreater was among the units targeted. The facility has a design capacity of about 8.8 million tonnes of oil a year, according to Fire Point. The Ukrainian company provided details of the strike and reported damage, while available information includes no independent assessment of the extent of the damage or its effect on operations. The attack followed reports that refinery strikes had paused in mid-month, alongside an increase in Russian refining activity.
Three industry sources cited by Reuters estimated that Russian refineries raised crude processing by about 25% in the second half of October compared with the start of the month, to about 5 million barrels a day. Reuters said Russian authorities reported that some of the latest strikes on refineries took place in Ryazan and Surgut in mid-October, and that no further strikes had been reported after October 16 as of the agency’s report. The sequence places the increase in processing during a period when there were no Russian reports of new refinery strikes. However, the reported strike on Novokuibyshevsk on October 30 came after the period covered by Reuters’ report on processing levels. Available information does not specify whether the facility resumed operations or how much output may change following the strike.
The increase in processing recorded also extended to diesel production, which the same industry sources estimated rose by at least 50,000 tonnes a day in October, to 225,000 tonnes a day. The sources estimated that about 80,000 tonnes a day of diesel may be available for export. These figures matter as Russian fuel export restrictions imposed by the authorities to protect domestic supplies remain in place, according to the International Energy Agency. The agency said Russian gasoline production fell 20% compared with 2025 levels, while diesel production declined by about 30%. Diesel export restrictions began on July 8, following a ban on gasoline exports in April and jet fuel exports in mid-June, the agency said.
Data from previous months reflect broader pressure on Russia’s refining sector. Refinery processing fell in June to 3.8 million barrels a day, its lowest level in more than 20 years and about 30% below the level a year earlier, according to the International Energy Agency. The agency said the Moscow refinery, with capacity of 250,000 barrels a day, was heavily damaged in an attack in June, and reports indicated it would remain shut until early 2027. It also reported that a Russian refinery was struck once every three days on average during the first eight months of 2026. In September, global diesel and gasoil exports were about 700,000 barrels a day lower year on year, with a loss of 1.3 million barrels a day from Russia and the Middle East, according to the agency’s October report.
The Novokuibyshevsk refinery was among the sector’s facilities targeted in earlier strikes. On October 2, Ukraine’s Security Service said its forces struck four oil facilities in the Samara and Volgograd regions, including the Samara terminal, the Samara-1 and Samara-2 pumping stations, and the Volgograd refinery. In September, Ukraine’s General Staff said the Kuibyshev refinery had been struck, putting its capacity at about 7 million tonnes a year and saying it produces gasoline, diesel, fuel oil and more than 30 other petroleum products. The Kuibyshev refinery is different from Novokuibyshevsk, which Fire Point said was targeted on October 30. On October 15, the Associated Press reported that a drone strike sparked a fire at a refinery in the Ryazan region, about 300 kilometres southeast of Moscow; it attributed information about the fire to the Russian Defence Ministry and the regional governor, while a senior Ukrainian official confirmed the refinery was targeted.
Against the backdrop of the reported pause in strikes, Reuters cited the Wall Street Journal as saying long-range strike units were told in mid-October that the refinery targeting campaign was effectively suspended after ongoing missions were completed. Reuters said it was unable to verify the report immediately. The newspaper attributed the pressure to U.S. President Donald Trump and said the informal pause was expected to last beyond the U.S. midterm elections and perhaps further into November. The account of the pause and its timing remains attributed to the newspaper’s report as relayed by Reuters, and on its own does not establish that the October 30 strike ended an announced arrangement. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said refineries quickly restarted units because most equipment needed by the oil and gas sectors is manufactured domestically.