Drone Attacks Cut Output at Half of Russia's 6 Largest Diesel Refineries
Key Facts
Half of Russia's 6 largest diesel-producing refineries were forced to sharply reduce operations or halt production entirely because of damage from drone attacks, according to Reuters calculations published on September 15, reflecting conditions up to that date. The disruption at these major facilities came as the International Energy Agency estimated a roughly 30% decline in Russian diesel output in its assessment published in September. Russian refinery runs had fallen to 3.8 million barrels a day in June, according to the agency. In its October Oil Market Report, the agency said Russian refineries' ability to operate was the constraint facing the country's fuel exports. It described this constraint as a "shortage of operable Russian refining capacity." Easing restrictions on Russian diesel exports would therefore not materially change the global market balance, according to its assessment.
Globally, gasoil and diesel exports fell by about 700 thousand barrels a day in September compared with the same month a year earlier, according to the International Energy Agency's report. Combined net exports from Russia and the Middle East fell by 1.3 million barrels a day year on year to 820 thousand barrels a day during the month. In Russia, the decline in seaborne shipments extended to total refined products, whose exports reached 1.075 million barrels a day in September, according to S&P Global Energy data. That represented a decline of 11% from the previous month and 42% from a year earlier. Russian seaborne crude oil exports, meanwhile, rose to 4.088 million barrels a day in September, according to the same firm. Crude shipments increased by 8% month on month, compared with the decline in refined product shipments over the same period.
September's disruptions were preceded by repeated attacks on Russia's refining sector, with the International Energy Agency saying a Russian refinery was hit once every 3 days on average during the first eight months of 2026. Bringing damaged units back into operation involves lengthy repairs, particularly when complex secondary refining units are affected, according to the agency's assessment published in September. Repairs to these units, especially those severely damaged, take between 6 and 8 months on average. Alongside the repair work, Western sanctions restrict Russia's access to some refinery equipment suppliers, according to the agency. This constraint coincides with increasing lead times for replacing damaged units at Russian refineries.
In response to the supply crisis, the International Energy Agency's governing board said in a statement dated October 15 that member countries had already released about 330 million barrels from their stockpiles. About 100 million barrels remained under the collective response launched in March to address the Strait of Hormuz crisis. In a separate statement dated October 11, the agency's executive director, Fatih Birol, had urged member countries that had not completed their earlier commitments to accelerate the release of the remaining volumes. Birol called on those countries to "accelerate the remaining releases to fulfil this earlier commitment, prioritising diesel." Plans to accelerate stockpile drawdowns include more than 20 million barrels of diesel to be made available as soon as possible as part of the ongoing collective response.
On Russian exports in the coming period, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the country could reach a range of between 3 and 3.5 million tonnes of diesel a month by the end of 2026, according to TASS. Novak described reaching that range as a return to pre-crisis export levels. The Russian official presented the restoration of those levels as a possibility by year-end. On inventories, the International Energy Agency expects the rebuilding of lost volumes, beyond normal seasonal fluctuations, to begin no earlier than the second half of 2027. The agency's estimate puts the start of inventory replenishment later than the period Novak cited as a possible timeframe for Russian diesel exports to return to their previous levels.