PGE Cuts 2026 Earnings Forecast to $3.18–$3.28 per Share as Large-Load Capacity Grows 12%
Key Facts
Portland General Electric (PGE) lowered its 2026 adjusted earnings-per-share forecast range to $3.18–$3.28 per diluted share, from $3.33–$3.53, citing the impact of unusually mild weather during the third quarter. In results published on October 29, the company reported quarterly net income of $119 million, or $1.00 per diluted share under generally accepted accounting principles, while adjusted net income was $125 million, or $1.06 per share. The company said unfavorable weather reduced customer demand and had a negative year-over-year impact of $0.15 per share in the quarter. The statement estimated the negative impact since the start of the year at about $0.20 per share compared with normal weather. By contrast, PGE left its long-term guidance unchanged, according to a correction to the results statement explaining the cut.
Weather-related demand weakness coincided with strong growth in the industrial sector, where demand rose 9% year over year after adjusting for weather. CEO Maria Pope said, "Industrial demand grew 9% year over year after adjusting for weather, while cooler summer weather reduced residential and small commercial demand." Company data showed total retail energy deliveries fell 3.1% nominally in the third quarter compared with the same period of 2025, but rose 1.1% after adjusting for weather. Industrial deliveries increased 6.4% on a weather-adjusted basis, while industrial demand recorded 9% year-over-year growth under the adjusted measures cited by the company. PGE pointed to continued demand from advanced technology and data center customers as a driver of industrial growth. This divergence highlights the effect of weather on short-term consumption alongside expanding demand from industrial customers.
The company raised its estimate for large-load capacity growth to about 12% annually through 2030, from a previous forecast of 10%. It said this expansion is based on contracted customers, some operating existing facilities and others developing new ones. PGE said it had signed an agreement with Verrus for a facility with capacity of up to 420 megawatts. The facility is expected to begin operating in 2028 and reach full capacity by 2033. These contracts put data center and industrial customer growth among the expected drivers of grid demand in the coming years. At the same time, the figures show that a higher capacity growth forecast does not eliminate the impact of weather that weighed on near-term earnings guidance.
For year-to-date financial performance, revenue for the first nine months of 2026 fell to $2.664 billion, compared with $2.687 billion in the corresponding period of 2025. Net income for the period declined to $232 million from $265 million. In the third quarter alone, the company reported net income under generally accepted accounting principles of $119 million and diluted earnings per share of $1.00, compared with adjusted income of $125 million and adjusted earnings of $1.06 per share. This came as the company said weather reduced customer demand, while industrial growth was recorded after adjusting for its impact. The divergence between industrial demand and residential and small commercial demand provides context for reading the quarterly results. The company specifically linked the lower 2026 range to historically mild weather during the third quarter.
PGE began participating in the extended day-ahead market on October 1, and said the participation is expected to save customers about $14 million in 2027. In August, the company filed its 2027 general rate case with the Oregon Public Utility Commission. The filing includes a proposed overall increase of about 4.8%, with an increase of about 3.9% for residential customers. If approved, the new rates will take effect on July 1, 2027. Initial testimony from parties in the rate case is expected in mid-December. In October, PGE filed its 2026 Clean Energy Plan and Integrated Resource Plan with the commission, proposing two pathways to meet projected resource needs while maintaining supply reliability and Oregon's decarbonization goals.
The company declared a quarterly dividend of 55.125 cents per common share, payable on or before January 15, 2027, to shareholders of record on December 22, 2026. In the market, the company's shares closed at $44.27 on October 28, then at $44.19 on October 29, the day results were announced. The two closing prices provide a direct view of the stock's performance across the trading days around the announcement. Available data did not include a later price that would allow the market reaction after the results-day close to be tracked. The general rate case, including the expected mid-December testimony schedule, remains among the company's upcoming regulatory milestones. The proposed rates will take effect only if approved by the commission, in line with the timeline set by PGE.