Portland General cuts 2026 earnings forecast to $3.18–$3.28 per share
Key Facts
Portland General Electric lowered its 2026 adjusted earnings forecast to $3.18–$3.28 per diluted share, after reporting third-quarter net income of $119 million, or $1.00 per share under generally accepted accounting principles. Adjusted net income was $125 million, or $1.06 per share. The company attributed the guidance cut to unfavorable weather conditions, which reduced earnings per share by $0.15 year over year in the quarter. It said the cumulative weather impact since the start of the year was $0.20 per share compared with normal weather. The revision follows the company’s decision in July to maintain an annual range of $3.33–$3.53 per share.
The company said the third quarter was the mildest in a decade, and that a cooler summer reduced demand from residential and small commercial customers. By contrast, industrial demand rose 9% year over year after adjustment for weather. This divergence shows differing consumption trends across customer groups during the period, while the company linked its lower annual forecast to the impact of mild weather. Higher industrial loads did not offset the weather pressure on the quarter’s overall result. The revised forecast assumes energy deliveries will rise 1.0–2.0% in 2026 after adjustment for weather.
For the first nine months of 2026, net income under generally accepted accounting principles fell to $232 million from $265 million in the same period of 2025. The decline puts the third-quarter result in the broader context of performance so far this year, even as quarterly net income reached $119 million. When it announced second-quarter results on July 31, the company said they were consistent with guidance and reaffirmed its annual adjusted earnings range of $3.33–$3.53 per share. The current revision reflects the company’s move from that range to a lower forecast after accounting for weather pressure. It said its long-term earnings growth guidance remains in place.
On demand, Portland General said weather-adjusted industrial load growth was 9% in the quarter, compared with a decline in residential and small commercial demand amid a cooler summer. The company announced that it began participating in the Extended Day-Ahead Market on October 1. It expects the participation to generate estimated customer savings of about $14 million in 2027, and said it will also limit energy market volatility. The move comes against an operating backdrop distinct from the earnings cut, which the company attributed to weather. The contrast between industrial demand growth and weakness in other customer groups remains a key feature of the quarter’s performance.
The company is also preparing for a regulatory process concerning electricity rates. Its general rate case for 2027 proposes an overall increase of 4.8% and an increase of 3.9% for residential customers. The company filed the case in August, and the proposed increases remain subject to regulatory approval. If approved, the new rates will take effect on July 1, 2027. The company said intervenor opening testimony is expected in mid-December. This regulatory process gives customers and investors a later date to consider the proposed rates’ impact on bills.
The company had scheduled its third-quarter results call for October 29, 2026, at 11 a.m. Eastern Time, after results were due before the market opened. Its shares closed at $44.27 on October 28, compared with $44.90 on October 22. Both closing prices predate the October 29 results announcement and therefore do not reflect the stock’s subsequent response to the guidance cut. An upcoming date in the company’s proceedings is the filing of intervenor testimony in mid-December. The new rates remain contingent on approval, with July 1, 2027, proposed as the effective date.