Reuters Poll Sees Italian Economy Growing 0.1% in Third Quarter
Key Facts
A Reuters poll suggested the Italian economy grew 0.1% quarter on quarter in the third quarter of 2026, ahead of the release of the preliminary GDP estimate. The expected reading would put growth below the 0.2% increase recorded in the second quarter, after the economy expanded 0.3% in the first quarter. Italy's statistics institute confirmed on 5 October that GDP rose 0.2% quarter on quarter and 1.0% year on year in the second quarter. In that quarter, household consumption spending and gross fixed capital formation each rose 0.3%, while imports increased 1.7% and exports 0.8%. Those figures provide a basis for comparison with the third-quarter estimate, as October confidence indicators painted a mixed picture of activity.
A Reuters poll showed Italian consumer confidence fell to 90.3 points in October from 91.2 in September, below the median forecast of 90.9 points. By contrast, the composite business sentiment index rose to 96.6 points from 95.9 the previous month. The manufacturing confidence index was unchanged at 91.9 points; it is a component of the composite index, rather than an overall business sentiment reading. The gap between households and companies highlights diverging indicator trends during the month, with consumer confidence declining as overall business sentiment improved. Sector data for the second quarter showed value added fell 0.2% in agriculture and 0.5% in industry, while services grew 0.4%.
Breaking down the components of second-quarter growth, domestic demand excluding inventories added 0.3 percentage points to GDP, while changes in inventories contributed a further 0.2 points. Net foreign demand, by contrast, reduced growth by 0.3 percentage points. These contributions show that domestic demand and inventories supported activity that quarter, while net trade weighed on it. Exports grew 0.8% in the same quarter, compared with a 1.7% increase in imports, according to Italy's statistics institute. These details form part of the baseline for comparison with the third quarter, alongside the differing performances across economic sectors.
The statistics institute said in its second-quarter data that carry-over growth for 2026, after calendar effects were excluded, stood at 0.8%. It also said 2026 has three more working days than the previous year, a factor taken into account when comparing annual growth rates. Separately, on 2 October the Italian government raised its forecast for GDP growth this year to 1%, from 0.6% in its April estimate. The Bank of Italy forecast growth of 1% in 2026 on 16 October, followed by 0.7% in 2027 and 0.8% in 2028. Those annual estimates provide a broader framework than a single quarterly reading, and comparison between them depends on GDP figures yet to be released.
Italy's statistics institute is due to publish the full national accounts for the third quarter on 1 December, after the preliminary GDP estimate scheduled for 30 October. The detailed accounts will provide a later reading of activity components in the quarter, similar to the consumption, investment and trade data released alongside the second-quarter accounts. The December release will allow comparison of the preliminary estimate with the detailed data used by the institute in its national accounts. Until then, the Reuters poll's 0.1% reading remains a pre-release forecast, not an officially published result. The government and the Bank of Italy have both forecast growth of 1% in 2026.