EL7.AI
Macro EconomyMedium•30 October 2026•
2 min read

Reuters Poll Sees Italy’s Economy Growing 0.1% in Third Quarter

Key Facts

1A Reuters poll forecast quarterly growth of 0.1% in Italian GDP in the third quarter of 2026.
2Italian GDP rose 0.2% quarter on quarter and 1.0% year on year in the second quarter of 2026.
3Employment declined 0.1%, equivalent to 13,000 people, in the third quarter compared with the second quarter.
4The unemployment rate held at 6.3% in September, and youth unemployment stood at 19.9%.

Reuters polls pointed to Italian gross domestic product growing 0.1% quarter on quarter in the third quarter of 2026, Reuters reported via MarketScreener. This was analysts’ estimate ahead of the release of the preliminary estimate, not an official result for the quarter. The Italian National Institute of Statistics’ calendar scheduled publication of the preliminary estimate for Oct. 30, 2026, at 10 a.m. local time. The expected estimate follows limited quarterly growth in the second quarter. The information available here does not include the third-quarter result, so 0.1% remains a forecast, not a final outcome.

A revision by the National Institute of Statistics showed gross domestic product rose 0.2% from the previous quarter in the second quarter and 1.0% from the same period in 2025. The calendar-adjusted carry-over effect on 2026 growth stood at about 0.8% through that quarter. Among demand components, domestic demand excluding inventories added 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth. Changes in inventories contributed 0.1 percentage points, while net external demand subtracted 0.1 percentage points. The figures show that second-quarter growth combined support from domestic demand and inventories with an offsetting negative contribution from net external demand.

By sector, value added in agriculture, forestry and fishing fell 0.1% in the second quarter, while industry declined 0.6%. By contrast, value added in services rose 0.4% over the same period. Seasonally adjusted industrial production also fell 1.3% in August from July, while calendar-adjusted output was unchanged year on year. From June to August, industrial production fell 1.1% compared with the previous three months. These indicators place industrial performance against the backdrop of weak growth recorded in the second quarter, without by themselves establishing its contribution to the third-quarter result.

Confidence indicators in October showed a limited improvement in overall business sentiment, with the index rising to 96.6 from 95.9 in September, according to National Institute of Statistics data reported by Reuters. The manufacturing index remained at 91.9 in October. In the labour market, the unemployment rate held at 6.3% in September, while youth unemployment fell to 19.9%. But employment declined 0.1%, equivalent to 13,000 people, in the third quarter compared with the second quarter. The readings combine an increase in the overall business sentiment index and an unchanged manufacturing index with a quarterly decline in the number of people employed.