39 Missiles and 120 Drones Precede Ukraine’s Resumption of Strikes on Ryazan Refinery

Key Facts

Ukrainian long-range strike units were told in mid-October that the campaign against Russian refineries was effectively suspended after ongoing missions were completed, according to a report cited by Reuters from The Wall Street Journal. Reuters said it could not immediately verify the report, which described the pause as unofficial and expected it to last beyond the U.S. midterm elections and perhaps further into November. But the suspension did not become a stable truce: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on 15 October that the restrictions had been lifted, after Kyiv refrained from striking refineries for 3 days in response to a U.S. request. On the same day, Ukraine targeted a refinery in Russia’s Ryazan region, sparking a fire about 300 kilometers southeast of Moscow, according to the Associated Press. The strike came as Russia continued to attack Ukrainian energy infrastructure, leaving energy facilities as mutual targets amid U.S. efforts to contain the escalation.

Zelensky said Ukraine halted strikes on refineries during the three days to accommodate the U.S. request, but Russia resumed attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. He said Kyiv then lifted the restrictions, a position that differs from the longer pause reported by the newspaper and subsequently cited by Reuters. The return of Ukrainian strikes came as Moscow had intensified attacks on energy infrastructure and civilians, according to Reuters. On the night of 13 to 14 October, Russia used 39 ballistic missiles and more than 120 attack drones and loitering munitions against energy facilities and critical infrastructure in and around Kyiv and Kharkiv, according to a post by Zelensky cited by the Kyiv Independent. The Ukrainian president added that the attack left 600,000 people without electricity, providing the scale and context of the assault before the announcement that refinery targeting had resumed.

In an interview with Reuters published on 5 October, Zelensky said Ukraine would respond to Russian attacks on energy infrastructure by targeting sources of war financing, including refineries, and stressed that Kyiv would not strike civilian sites indiscriminately. He said: "With their attacks on our energy, we have to respond to their energy." That followed a major Russian attack on the energy grid on 30 September, which Reuters described as the heaviest assault on energy sites in months. Ukraine’s grid operator announced emergency power cuts in Kyiv and three neighboring regions, the first such measure in the capital since spring, according to Reuters. Ukrainian officials said 7 people were killed in the attack. These events place refinery targeting within Kyiv’s stated response to strikes on the power grid, while the brief pause in October remained conditional and limited.

On the fuel front, the first vessel carrying Russian diesel sailed to the United States under a new import deal, according to the Associated Press. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the cargo amounted to 40,000 tons, while Kpler said the vessel was bound for New York with an expected arrival date of 7 November. This was happening alongside Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, but it does not establish that the reported pause covered diesel shipments or that Kyiv pledged not to target them; those details were not included in the available information. Separately from fuel flows, settlements for New York Harbor heating oil and ultra-low-sulfur diesel futures showed the price falling from $4.9842 a gallon on 23 October to $4.5875 on 29 October. These figures concern the front-month contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange and offer a reading of derivatives-market movements during that period, not a direct measure of the strikes’ effect on crude oil.

The impact of attacks on the power grid also extends to preparations for winter. The Associated Press said that protecting the grid from Russian attacks ahead of winter was among the urgent issues Zelensky cited, alongside securing more Patriot missiles and financial support. An independent U.N. commission of inquiry also said its examination of the attacks’ impact drew on testimony from 255 Ukrainians who experienced winter conditions in Kyiv and eight other regions during 2025-2026. The testimony highlights the breadth of the experience examined across multiple regions, while attacks on energy facilities remained part of both sides’ calculations during October. Russia occupies about 20% of Ukraine but has not taken control of all the territory over which it claims sovereignty in the regions it annexed, according to the Associated Press. Moscow’s demands include full control of 4 regions — Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson — as well as Crimea, which it seized in 2014.

On the diplomatic track, a date for the next round of talks had not been set by 28 October. Ukraine’s presidency said preparations were underway for a trilateral meeting in Abu Dhabi and that Kyiv expected it to take place by 10 November. In remarks cited by the Associated Press, Zelensky said he hoped a possible date would be set between 6 and 10 November, after the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for 3 November. The differing formulations indicate that the meeting was expected within a time window, rather than that a final date had been announced. Territorial demands and security guarantees remain points of contention: Russia is seeking full control of the 4 regions it annexed, while Kyiv insists on guarantees to prevent another invasion, according to the Associated Press. If held, the meeting could put the issue of halting attacks on energy facilities within broader talks, but the reported unofficial pause was not, as of that date, a firm agreement between the two sides.