Russian Refineries Raise Crude Processing 25% to About 5 Million Barrels a Day
Key Facts
Russian refineries raised crude processing by about 25% in the second half of October compared with the start of the month, to about 5 million barrels a day, according to estimates from three oil industry sources cited by Reuters. The increase points to a recovery in some refining activity after attacks on refineries stopped, lifting diesel output and potential export supplies. The sources estimated that diesel output rose by at least 50,000 tonnes a day during October, reaching 225,000 tonnes a day, or about 1.7 million barrels a day. They also estimated that about 80,000 tonnes of diesel a day could be available for export. Russian authorities said attacks on the Ryazan and Surgut refineries in mid-October were among the last strikes, and no further attacks on refineries had been recorded after October 16.
The improvement in processing followed months of pressure on Russia's refining sector. Reuters reported that refineries had faced weekly Ukrainian drone attacks since mid-March, causing domestic fuel shortages. This led to bans on exports of gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and the start of seaborne imports of oil products. The International Energy Agency estimated that refinery processing reached 3.8 million barrels a day in June, its lowest level in more than 20 years and about 30% below its level a year earlier. In September, the agency said gasoline output was 20% below 2025 levels and diesel output had fallen by about 30%, prompting the government to restrict fuel exports to protect domestic supplies.
On the recovery of operating capacity, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said refineries were restarting units quickly, noting that most required oil and gas equipment was manufactured domestically. The increase in diesel output could allow some external supplies to recover; sources estimated that about 80,000 tonnes a day was available for export in the second half of October. Russia extended its diesel export ban in late July through August 31, then extended it on August 25 through September 30, according to the International Energy Agency. The agency linked the extension to continued Ukrainian attacks on refineries. Current export estimates therefore come against the backdrop of earlier restrictions imposed to support domestic fuel availability.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine suspended strikes on refineries during the first 72 hours of an energy truce, while targeting other sites. Russia continued striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure during that period, he added, according to the Kyiv Independent. His account indicates that Ukraine's suspension of strikes on refineries was temporary and did not amount to a mutual halt in attacks on energy facilities. Russian authorities, meanwhile, said attacks on refineries had not resumed after October 16. The halt in refinery strikes coincided with higher processing in the second half of the month, according to estimates from oil industry sources cited by Reuters.
The recovery in processing offers a sign of improved Russian oil product supplies after their decline in previous months, with diesel the clearest focus of the commercial impact in these estimates. Estimated output reached 225,000 tonnes a day, with about 80,000 tonnes a day potentially available for export. The improvement follows declines that prompted Moscow to restrict fuel exports, while attacks on refineries continued through much of the preceding period. In broader oil markets, dated Brent crude recorded a monthly increase of $26.17 a barrel in September, reaching $116.89, according to the International Energy Agency, amid renewed fighting in the Middle East and disrupted supplies. These figures do not directly estimate the effect of increased Russian diesel output on fuel prices or market trading.