EL7.AI
StocksMedium•29 October 2026•
4 min read

Mobileye Raises 2026 Revenue Forecast Floor to $1,995 Million

Key Facts

1Mobileye raised its 2026 revenue range to $1,995–$2,020 million and increased its midpoint by $13 million.
2EyeQ shipments rose 11% in the first nine months of 2026, while estimated global automotive production fell 1%.
3Third-quarter revenue was $492 million, down 2% year over year, as average system prices declined 5%.
4Third-quarter adjusted operating income rose to $89 million from $74 million, an increase of 20%.

Mobileye raised the lower end of its 2026 revenue forecast to $1,995 million, from a previous range starting at $1,970 million, and kept the upper end at $2,020 million, according to its third-quarter results update published on October 29. The company said the midpoint of its revenue range rose by $13 million as the forecast range narrowed. The revision follows an 11% increase in EyeQ chip shipments in the first nine months of the year compared with the same period in 2025. The company said this growth outpaced the automotive sector, as estimated global production fell 1% over the same period. But shipment growth did not prevent third-quarter revenue from declining, reflecting the impact of pricing and the mix of systems sold.

Third-quarter revenue was $492 million, down 2% from the same period in 2025, according to the results statement. The company attributed the decline mainly to a 5% drop in average system prices. It said exports by Chinese automakers accounted for a larger mix of systems with lower software content, alongside lower SuperVision delivery volumes. Higher EyeQ shipment volumes offset some of these factors, but were not enough to prevent a quarterly revenue decline. The figures show that shipping more chips does not necessarily translate into a corresponding increase in revenue, as returns vary with system content and pricing.

Mobileye linked the higher revenue forecast mainly to higher-than-expected SuperVision deliveries, as well as passing higher memory costs on to customers during the third quarter. The memory cost pass-through added about $7 million to quarterly revenue, without contributing to gross margin, the company said. Part of the expected revenue increase therefore reflects a cost that was passed through, rather than a corresponding improvement in profit margin. The company also forecast adjusted operating income of between $380 million and $420 million in 2026, compared with a previous range of between $365 million and $425 million. It said the midpoint of the new adjusted operating income forecast rose 1%.

On a quarterly basis, adjusted operating income rose to $89 million in the third quarter, from $74 million a year earlier, marking annual growth of 20%. The company said operating income under both its non-GAAP and GAAP measures benefited from an Israeli R&D Law incentive grant. The grant’s impact was $51 million on non-GAAP operating income, compared with $52 million on GAAP operating income. This government support puts part of the improvement in operating income in a separate context from growth in the underlying business. For annual revenue, the October update followed a July revision, when the company raised the midpoint of its forecast by $20 million to a range of between $1,970 million and $2,020 million.

Mobileye forecast that shipments to its 10 largest customers would grow 7% in 2026, despite expecting total automotive production by those customers to fall 5%. The company presented this as an indication that shipments to its core customer base would expand in a year when their overall production is expected to decline. On pricing, the chief financial officer said average selling prices in 2027 would be closer to stable compared with 2026. She added that a moderate decline remained possible, depending on software content and demand for higher- or lower-content packages. She said: "We expect average selling prices to be more stable in 2027; a moderate decline may occur because of software content and demand for higher-content packages compared with lower-content ones, but we do not expect the same pressures seen in 2026."

In premarket trading on October 29, Mobileye shares fell 8.64% to $6.45, compared with a previous close of $7.06 on October 28, according to Investing.com. The decline came despite the company raising its annual forecast, while a report by the site linked the pressure ahead of the results announcement to investor expectations, analyst downgrades and concerns including competition and reliance on Volkswagen. The report does not identify China alone as the reason for the share decline. The quarterly figures add mixed factors to the picture: growth in shipments and adjusted operating income, offset by declines in revenue and average system prices. China’s monthly purchasing managers’ index is due on October 31, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China’s calendar.