Ford Raises Lower End of 2026 Operating Profit Forecast to $10.5 Billion
Key Facts
Ford raised the lower end of its 2026 adjusted operating profit forecast to $10.5 billion from $10 billion previously, while keeping the upper end at $11 billion. The announcement came with third-quarter results, in which the company posted adjusted operating profit of $2.7 billion, up 3% year over year. Revenue was $49.5 billion, down 2% from the same period, while net income was $2 billion compared with $2.4 billion a year earlier. Adjusted earnings per share reached 49 cents, exceeding analysts’ expectations of 41 cents, while revenue also topped the consensus forecast of $48.9 billion. The higher guidance reflects an improvement in the lower end of the profit outlook, while cost pressures and vehicle sales remained factors in the company’s results.
Chief Financial Officer Sherry House said Ford recorded quarterly revenue of $49.5 billion and adjusted operating profit of $2.7 billion, attributing the increase in profit despite lower revenue to a stronger product mix, sales of higher-margin products and cost controls. Operating cash flow was $5.4 billion, while adjusted free cash flow reached $4.7 billion. The company ended the quarter with $46.4 billion in liquidity, including $25.3 billion in cash. It kept its full-year adjusted free cash flow forecast at between $6 billion and $7 billion, and maintained expected capital spending at between $9.5 billion and $10.5 billion. The figures show that the profit forecast revision was not accompanied by a change in cash flow or capital spending estimates.
Ford expects Ford Blue operating profit of about $5.5 billion in 2026 and Ford Pro profit of about $7 billion, against an expected loss of about $4 billion for Model e. In the third quarter, Ford Blue posted operating profit of $1.4 billion, down 10% from a year earlier. The company attributed the decline to lower volume after discontinuing some products, as well as the impact of the conflict in the Middle East and higher commodity costs. Ford Pro recorded operating profit of $1.7 billion, down 16% year over year. Ford said commodity pressures and the costs of launching Super Duty truck production in Oakville affected the commercial segment’s results.
In the Model e electric vehicle segment, the operating loss narrowed 25% year over year to $1.1 billion. But segment revenue fell 31% to $1.2 billion, while wholesale shipments declined 31% to 34,000 vehicles. Across the company, Ford sales totaled 509,764 vehicles in the quarter, down 6.6% year over year. The company said sales volume was roughly stable after excluding the discontinued Escape and Corsair models, compared with a decline of about 1% in industry volume. Ford estimated that its share of retail sales rose 0.4 percentage points to 12.1% after excluding the impact of the planned exits of the two models.
Super Duty truck production totaled about 110,275 in the third quarter, up 4.4% year over year, marking the best quarterly performance in 19 years. By contrast, F-150 truck production was affected at the end of September by a short-term issue at a supplier, which Ford said was unrelated to aluminum. The company estimated that the issue’s expected financial impact could be absorbed within its full-year adjusted operating profit guidance. Software services and the parts business posted record quarterly revenue, with BlueCruise and connected services among the leading contributors. Ford Credit’s pretax earnings also rose 27% to $803 million, supported by derivative valuation gains, financing margins and used-car prices.
Ford’s 2026 guidance is based on a U.S. industry annual sales rate of 16.5 million units and an industry price increase of about 100 basis points year over year. The guidance assumes commodity cost pressures of about $2.5 billion year over year, alongside $1 billion in material and warranty cost reductions, excluding tariffs and Novelis. The company said its forecast does not include the possibility of a major escalation in the conflict in the Middle East or a material downturn in the U.S. economy. It added that either possibility could have a significant impact on industry demand. Ford is distributing 15 cents per share for the fourth quarter, payable on December 1 to shareholders of record on November 10.
House said Ford expects to perform well in 2027, citing the launch of its Universal electric vehicle platform, Ford Energy and a new F-150 model among the company’s upcoming developments. In its earnings statement, she had discussed cost reductions, efficiency and investment as the company looks toward 2027. These plans remain tied to the company’s trajectory after 2026, when it expects a loss of about $4 billion for Model e. This comes alongside the continued commodity pressure Ford expects and its reliance on material and warranty cost reductions in its annual assumptions. The guidance did not include the possibility of a major escalation in the conflict in the Middle East or a material downturn in the U.S. economy.