RBNZ Holds Interest Rates at 2.75% Defying Market Expectations

Key Facts

1The RBNZ held the Official Cash Rate at 2.75%, defying market expectations for a 25bp hike.

2NZD/USD is testing the lower boundary of its multi-month range at 0.5560/0.5550.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held the Official Cash Rate at 2.75% on October 28, 2026. FXStreet reported that the decision defied market expectations for a 25-basis point hike, triggering immediate downward pressure on the local currency.

NZD/USD is currently testing the lower boundary of its multi-month range at 0.5560/0.5550, according to Societe Generale. This technical weakness follows cooling inflation data from October 21, 2026, which showed the quarterly inflation rate at 0.7%, missing the 0.8% forecast and falling from the previous 1.5%.

Market participants are looking ahead to the ANZ Business Confidence data scheduled for release on October 29, 2026. Additionally, employment data due on November 3, 2026, will be closely monitored, with forecasts suggesting an unemployment rate of 5.5%.

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