RBNZ Surprises Markets with Interest Rate Hold at 2.75%

Key Facts

1The RBNZ left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.75%, defying market expectations for a hike.

2The Monetary Policy Committee voted 4:3 against a 25bp hike, with Governor Breman voting to hold.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.75%, defying market expectations for a hike. ActionForex reported that the Monetary Policy Committee voted 4:3 against a 25 basis point increase, with Governor Breman joining the majority to hold rates in order to assess the cumulative impact of previous monetary tightening.

The decision follows inflation data released on October 21, 2026, which showed a quarterly rate of 0.7%, missing the 0.8% forecast. During the press conference on October 28, 2026, Governor Breman emphasized that inflation was weaker than anticipated in the third quarter, while the committee noted that aggregate economic growth remains resilient despite pressure on households and businesses.

Looking ahead, ANZ Business Confidence data is scheduled for release on October 29, 2026, followed by key employment and unemployment figures on November 3, 2026, which will further inform the RBNZ's policy path.