3 Sources Expect OPEC+ to Hold December Output Targets at Sunday Meeting
Key Facts
3 sources familiar with the matter expect OPEC+ countries to keep December output targets unchanged at a meeting scheduled for Sunday, November 1, Reuters reported on October 27. The sources said the decision had not been finalized at the time of publication, making a hold an expectation rather than a final decision. The meeting concerns output targets for December, not an announced change in actual production levels. It will be held online with 7 core members of the group participating. The sources told Reuters they had “knowledge of the matter,” without the agency naming them or attributing public statements to them.
The meeting includes Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman, according to Reuters. It comes after OPEC said the seven countries would keep required production for November at the September 2026 level. The organization set November 1 as the date for its next meeting, which sources expect to hold December targets. The seven countries continue to meet monthly to review market conditions, according to an OPEC statement. This schedule gives the group an opportunity to review targets in turn, while the decision on December remains non-final until it is announced.
The group’s focus, according to Reuters, is on 2027 production quota talks, as it moves to discuss baselines that will determine future quotas. Before those baselines are set, OPEC+ needs to complete a review of member countries’ production capacity, the report said. The review links future quotas to estimates of the production capacity underpinning the baselines. The expectation of unchanged December targets therefore comes as the group prepares to address quotas for the following year. The report did not specify when the review would be completed or the outcome of the talks.
The targets issue comes amid a gap between targeted levels and actual supplies from Gulf producers. Reuters said Gulf members had been increasing exports after disruptions lasting months due to the Iran war. It added that most of those producers continued to pump volumes far below their targets. The picture therefore combines an export recovery from earlier disruption with production remaining below target for most Gulf producers. The report did not specify the scale of the export increase or the size of the gap between actual production and targets.
As part of its supply policy, OPEC+ completed in September the phased unwinding of a 1.65 million barrels per day cut agreed in 2023, Reuters reported. But the group retained another layer of production cuts, amounting to about 2 million barrels per day, covering most members through the end of 2026. That places expectations of unchanged December targets within a policy that still includes existing cuts, despite the completion of the earlier cut’s unwinding. This context differs from saying the group is moving toward new cuts; the report cites an expectation that December targets will remain unchanged. The report does not say the hold is intended to support prices or avoid a surplus.
The International Energy Agency forecast that global oil supply would fall by an annual average of 5.8 million barrels per day to 100.7 million barrels per day in 2026, before reversing course and rising by 7.7 million barrels per day in 2027. In a sign of supply and price volatility during the period, the monthly average for dated North Sea crude rose by $26.17 per barrel in September 2026 to $116.89. The agency attributed the increase to renewed hostilities in the Middle East and the resulting supply disruption, as well as accelerated purchases by Asian refiners. These figures remain part of the broader market context, while Reuters’ report on Sunday’s meeting cited no price reaction. After the November 1 meeting, OPEC said the seven countries would continue their monthly meetings to review market conditions, while upcoming talks focus on 2027 quotas and their baselines.