WTI Closes at $103.30 as Gulf Supply Risks Persist
Key Facts
West Texas Intermediate closed at $103.30 per barrel on October 28, up from $99.90 the previous day, according to EL7 data. The gains came in a market still tracking supply risks linked to tensions in the Gulf and the Middle East. Brent futures fell to $113.88 per barrel on October 27, while WTI dropped to $99.90, according to Reuters data cited by Investing.com. This coincided with regional talks to ease tensions, but concerns about the security of oil facilities and shipping remained. In its October report, the U.S. Energy Information Administration linked rising oil prices to an increase in attacks on oil infrastructure and tankers in the region.
The Energy Information Administration estimated that the average spot price of Brent crude was $114 per barrel in September, up $23 from August. The agency attributed the rise to an escalation in attacks on oil infrastructure and tankers in the Middle East. The disruptions included attacks that temporarily halted flows through Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, according to the report. The agency also said crude oil production shut-ins linked to the disruptions averaged 4.8 million barrels per day in September. The average was 5.8 million barrels per day in August, after peaking at 10.9 million in May, reflecting a decline in disrupted output from its peak while large volumes remained off the market.
Facility risks coincided with disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The Associated Press quoted Iran as saying that 7 oil tankers caught fire or were damaged overnight on October 22 after being attacked or hitting naval mines; the agency said it could not independently verify the account. The agency also reported that October saw 28 attacks on ships, the highest number since the war began, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence. Despite the attacks, industry officials said tankers continued to transit the strait under U.S. protection and at high cost. Risks to maritime passage keep the supply premium in focus for oil markets, alongside the production disruptions reported by the Energy Information Administration.
In an effort to curb escalation, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan held talks with Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday, according to Reuters. The talks aimed to ease tensions in the Middle East, and participants agreed to continue dialogue on peace and security. But events on the ground kept concerns alive: the Houthi group said it had targeted Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery with a ballistic missile, Reuters reported. That alone did not establish that the refinery’s supplies had been disrupted, but it added a Saudi oil facility to the focus of security concerns as attacks on ships continued. In this context, Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said the East-West Pipeline’s capacity had increased from 2 million barrels to 7 million barrels per day, providing an alternative route to transport oil away from the Gulf.
Price movements during the third quarter show how quickly the risk premium can shift. Brent futures began the quarter at $72 per barrel on July 1, then topped $100 on July 23 after military strikes resumed on July 7. It then traded between $79 and $98 through September 8, according to the Energy Information Administration. In September, the average spot price jumped to $114 as attacks on facilities and tankers escalated. These milestones point to the market shifting between the effects of de-escalation or stable flows and those of escalation on the ground, while supply risks remained in focus even as production shut-ins fell from their May peak.
The Energy Information Administration expects the average spot price of Brent to reach $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, after raising its estimate by $14 from the previous month’s forecast. It also said global oil inventories fell by an average of 1.9 million barrels per day in the third quarter and expects them to decline by an additional average of 0.7 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. The agency attributed additional upward pressure to tight diesel markets. Its fourth-quarter forecast, however, concerns the average price path rather than the closing price on a specific day, placing WTI’s move to $103.30 on October 28 within a volatile market shaped by actual flows, shipping risks and political developments. Price expectations remain tied to how reopening flows or continued disruptions may change the market balance.