Russian Oil and Gas Revenues Fall 17.2% to 5.471 Trillion Rubles

Key Facts

Russian federal budget oil and gas revenues fell 17.2% year over year to 5.471 trillion rubles in January-September 2026, according to Finance Ministry data cited by Interfax. The decline came despite a rise in global prices for oil products, as the ministry said a lower average dollar exchange rate against the ruble reduced receipts. It added that a rise in compensation payments to refiners, alongside higher oil product prices, also weighed on revenues. The figures come as Moscow seeks to fund rising spending while oil and gas contribute less to state income. The ministry said tax collection lags price movements, meaning stronger oil prices do not necessarily feed through to revenues in the same month.

The difference between the two figures reflects their different sources, so neither alone provides a unified measure of the price of crude during the month. September prices also affect treasury revenues in October because of the tax calculation cycle. Reuters estimated that oil and gas tax revenues in October could rise 10% year over year to 1 trillion rubles, driven mainly by quarterly tax payments. But higher prices could be offset by lower output: Reuters forecast a 5% drop in Russian oil production in the third quarter compared with the same period in 2025.

Budget data show the gap between state income and spending widened in the first nine months. The federal deficit reached 5.186 trillion rubles, equivalent to 2.2% of gross domestic product, over the same period. Non-oil and gas revenues, meanwhile, rose 18.8% to 24.168 trillion rubles, partly compensating for weaker energy income. But spending increased 14.5% year over year to 34.825 trillion rubles, keeping pressure on public finances. The Finance Ministry raised its full-year deficit estimate in September to 7.345 trillion rubles, or 3.2% of gross domestic product, compared with a planned deficit of 3.786 trillion rubles, or 1.6% of gross domestic product.

The central bank described economic growth in the second half of the year as moderate, but said current price pressures remained elevated. The decision puts domestic borrowing costs in the context of efforts to contain inflation, as the budget faces weaker energy income and higher spending. The available data in this report do not include a confirmed publication date for the unemployment reading on 28 October or the manufacturing purchasing managers' index on 2 November. The Russian statistics agency's calendar lists the next unemployment data release for 30 November 2026.