U.S. crude rises to $101.41 amid Hormuz attacks and renewed strikes on Russian refineries
Key Facts
West Texas Intermediate crude rose to $101.41 a barrel during trading on Friday, October 16, 2026, as attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz escalated and Ukraine resumed strikes on Russian refineries. U.S. crude gained 3.55% in the session, according to The National, amid disruptions to oil shipping and refining facilities. Brent crude closed the session at $109.86 a barrel, up 3.72%, the newspaper reported. Over the week ending with that session, WTI jumped more than 10%. Brent posted weekly gains of about 5%, as the U.S. Energy Information Administration attributed additional upward pressure on crude to tight diesel markets.
Investing.com reported on Friday that Iran had intensified attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks. Crude oil and petroleum product shipments through the strait averaged 20 million barrels a day in 2025, according to the International Energy Agency. Those flows include crude oil and refined fuel shipped through the passage out of the region. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says some pipelines allow oil to be transported along routes that bypass the strait. But most volumes passing through Hormuz have no alternative way out of the region, according to the agency.
In Russia, the governor of Ryazan said a Ukrainian drone attack was followed by a fire at the oil refinery, according to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. The refinery belongs to Rosneft and accounts for about 5% of Russia's total oil refining capacity. The attack followed a 3-day pause in Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. Russia continued targeting Ukrainian energy facilities during the Ukrainian pause, the broadcaster reported. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Kyiv would end its restraint on attacking refineries, saying: "The ban on attacking refineries is over. We are done." Walt Chancellor, an energy analyst at Macquarie, told Investing.com that Russia's ability to increase diesel exports materially would depend on refineries restarting operations and seasonal fluctuations in Russian demand.
On the market balance, the International Energy Agency forecast in its October report that global oil demand would fall by an average of 2.6 million barrels a day in 2026. Global supply stood at 102.3 million barrels a day in September, according to the report. Gulf producers led the monthly increase in supply that month. Observed global oil inventories at the end of September were 509 million barrels below pre-war levels. Despite its forecast decline in demand, the agency expected the global oil balance to remain in deficit through year-end.
In refined fuel markets, global diesel exports fell in September by 700 thousand barrels a day from year-earlier levels, according to the International Energy Agency. In the United States, East Coast distillate fuel inventories fell during the same month to 32% below their five-year seasonal average, according to the Energy Information Administration. The agency said diesel shortages were increasing refiners' demand for crude oil to meet fuel needs. In an earlier report published by The National on October 7, International Energy Agency member countries still held about 1.1 billion barrels of emergency oil stocks. Those reserves included more than 200 million barrels of diesel, according to the newspaper.
In its October outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its forecast for the average Brent spot price in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $105 a barrel. That was $14 a barrel above the estimate the agency issued the previous month. The revision covers Brent's average spot price during the final quarter of the year. The agency linked its outlook to supply disruptions and the severity of tightness in diesel markets. The next U.S. Short-Term Energy Outlook is scheduled for release on November 10, 2026, according to the published release calendar.