Brent Jumps 4% to $113.17 as Middle East Supply Risks Mount
Key Facts
Brent futures jumped 4% on Oct. 22 to $113.17 a barrel, after reaching their highest level in five months, according to the Associated Press. The surge came as concerns grew over potential disruptions to Middle East oil supplies amid mounting attacks on energy facilities and shipping. Crude was below $97 a barrel at the start of the month, underscoring how quickly prices have shifted in recent weeks. EL7 data showed a close of $113.17 on Oct. 22, followed by $114.14 on Oct. 23. The first figure is Thursday's close, when Brent rose 4%, while the second is the following day's reading; they are not a single closing price.
At Saudi Arabia's Shaybah field, the Energy Ministry said debris from an intercepted drone near a processing facility killed two people and injured two others on Oct. 21. Arab News quoted the ministry as saying the two people killed were Filipino and Nepalese. The ministry said the debris also caused a fire in a vehicle belonging to a contractor working at the field; the vehicle was outside the facility perimeter. It said field operations were unaffected. The incident therefore took place near an oil facility, but the statement as reported did not indicate any disruption to production or processing at Shaybah.
Concerns also extended to tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran said 7 oil tankers caught fire or were damaged during the night of Oct. 21 to 22 after being struck or hitting sea mines. The Associated Press reported that October saw the highest number of reported attacks on commercial shipping since March, citing a British military monitor. These developments heighten the market's sensitivity to any threat to the routes through which oil shipments pass. The United States also ordered some of its diplomats and family members of government employees to leave Saudi Arabia after a series of deadly attacks and concerns about an escalation in fighting, according to the Associated Press.
The price rise coincided with a decline in global inventories. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated that inventories fell by an average of 1.9 million barrels a day in the third quarter of 2026 and forecast a further decline averaging 0.7 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter. Continued draws mean the market is entering the final months of the year with lower inventories, while Middle East disruptions are making prices more sensitive to supply news. In a separate estimate, the agency said the average spot price of Brent was $114 a barrel in September, up $23 from August. It attributed the increase to more attacks on oil infrastructure and tankers in the region.
However, the Energy Information Administration's estimate for the fourth quarter is below trading levels recorded on Oct. 22 and 23. The agency expects Brent to average $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, $14 higher than its forecast the previous month. It linked the higher estimate to continued Middle East disruptions and tight global inventories. This means its forecast for the period combines prices that are high relative to its previous estimate with a quarterly average below EL7's daily readings in late October. The next update to the agency's Short-Term Energy Outlook is due on Nov. 10, 2026, the next scheduled review of its estimates.