Brent touches $110, closes at $109.86 amid supply disruptions
Key Facts
Brent crude futures touched $110 a barrel during trading on Friday, 16 October 2026, amid oil supply disruptions and risks to energy facilities. The crude settled at $109.86 a barrel, according to Benzinga's account of the session. Its weekly gain reached 4.9%, according to Reuters, as consuming nations moved to release more oil and fuel from reserves. West Texas Intermediate crude posted a larger weekly gain of 10.4%, in a market facing production outages in the Middle East and disruptions to Russian refining. Haitong Futures said in a Friday note cited by Reuters: "What will really calm the oil market is an easing of tensions in the Middle East."
In the latest security developments, a Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile launched towards the Red Sea city of Yanbu, according to Reuters. In Russia, two industry sources told the agency that the Ryazan refinery suspended a primary crude distillation unit following a drone attack in the region. On shipping, Reuters cited a U.S. official as saying the Trump administration was considering lifting sanctions on some "shadow fleet" tankers. The step under consideration covers vessels carrying oil and petroleum products from Russia, Iran and Venezuela. The official said easing sanctions on these tankers was intended to bring down elevated global shipping costs.
Against this backdrop, the International Energy Agency said in its October report that global oil supply rose by 2.5 million barrels per day in September from the previous month. Total global supply reached 102.3 million barrels per day during the month, according to the agency's estimates. In a separate estimate, the U.S. Energy Information Administration put shut-in oil production in the Middle East at 4.8 million barrels per day in September. Shut-in production in the region had reached 5.8 million barrels per day in August before declining the following month. The U.S. agency estimated that global oil inventories fell by an average of 1.9 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2026.
To address market disruptions, the International Energy Agency said in a statement dated 15 October that about 330 million barrels had already reached the market as part of the collective stock release. Member countries agreed to take the steps needed to complete remaining releases of about 100 million barrels under existing commitments. Plans to accelerate the releases include bringing more than 20 million barrels of diesel to market as soon as possible, according to the statement. The agency encouraged member countries with production and refining capacity to increase supplies of crude and refined products. It singled out diesel for increased supply, alongside the volumes scheduled for accelerated release from reserves.
In the United States, retail gasoline prices averaged $4.35 a gallon in September, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Retail diesel prices averaged $6.29 a gallon during the same month. The agency attributed the rise in gasoline and diesel prices in September to higher crude oil prices and refining margins. On inventories, distillate fuel stocks on the U.S. East Coast were 32% below their seasonal average during the month. That benchmark average is based on 2021–2025, according to the agency's petroleum products market report.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its forecast for the average Brent spot price in the fourth quarter to $105 a barrel in its October report. The new estimate is $14 a barrel above its forecast issued the previous month. The agency expects global oil inventories to continue declining in the fourth quarter by an average of 0.7 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency expects global oil demand to contract by an average of 2.6 million barrels per day during 2026, adding weak consumption to supply disruptions. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release its next Short-Term Energy Outlook on 10 November 2026.