JPMorgan Abandons Oil Price Baseline as Brent Crosses $100 Threshold

Key Facts

1JPMorgan stated it no longer has a baseline view on how oil market disruptions will end as prices cross the $100 per barrel threshold.

2Observed global inventories fell by 95 million barrels in August, bringing the cumulative draw since February to 507 million barrels.

3The IEA projects world oil supply to average 100.7 million barrels a day in 2026, down 5.7 million from a year earlier.

JPMorgan stated it no longer has a baseline view on how oil market disruptions will end as prices cross the $100 per barrel threshold. According to analysts at the bank, they simply do not know how to model the endgame after several economic thresholds, previously assumed to force a diplomatic resolution, were surpassed.

Data from the International Energy Agency showed observed global inventories fell by 95 million barrels in August, bringing the cumulative draw since February to 507 million barrels. The IEA projects world oil supply to average 100.7 million barrels a day in 2026, down 5.7 million from the prior year. Regarding related equities, JPM closed at $334.98 on September 29, 2026, while BAC closed at $54.96 and C closed at $130.8 on the same date.