Goldman Sachs Forecasts 25bps Fed Hike Following Hot Inflation Data

Key Facts

1Goldman Sachs shifted its Fed forecast to a 25-basis-point rate hike from a previous call for no change.

2Core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month in August, exceeding market expectations.

3Markets are now pricing in a nearly 90% probability of a quarter-point hike at the September 15-16 meeting.

In a move reflecting a shift in U.S. monetary policy under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. According to reports, the bank now expects a 25-basis-point rate hike instead of holding rates steady, following hotter-than-expected inflation data. Core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month in August, leading markets to price in a nearly 90% probability of a hike at the September 15-16 meeting.

This shift in expectations comes amid mounting inflationary pressures, including a 0.4% rise in producer prices and surging oil costs, impacting sentiment across the financial sector. Per market data, Goldman Sachs (GS) closed at $1,029.18 on September 11, 2026, while peers JPMorgan (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS) closed at $356.23 and $214.38, respectively, as of the same date.

Traders are closely watching the start of the Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow, September 15, to confirm the policy path, with GS shares having closed on September 11, 2026, within a range of $1,018.59 to $1,042.99. With hike probabilities nearing 90%, the focus remains on whether recent economic data will solidify a more hawkish stance for the remainder of the year.