EUR/USD Falls to 1.15388 Ahead of Sept. 15-16 Fed Meeting After ECB Hike
Key Facts
EL7's September 14 market snapshot placed EUR/USD at 1.15388 after a daily range of 1.15355 to 1.16036. Attention now shifts to the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for September 15-16.
The Fed meeting begins on September 15 and ends on September 16, so describing the policy decision as due “tomorrow” from a September 14 publication date is inaccurate. The official schedule means the meeting outcome comes on September 16, not on its first day.
The ECB, meanwhile, decided on September 10 to raise its three key rates by 25 basis points. The deposit-facility rate will rise to 2.50%, the main refinancing rate to 2.65% and the marginal lending rate to 2.90%, with the new levels taking effect on September 16.
The decision is the ECB's second increase of 2026, following a rise in the deposit rate to 2.25% effective June 17. The bank said the Middle East conflict was generating inflation pressure and projected headline inflation of 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028, against its 2% medium-term target.
Technically, the published analysis identified a break of 1.1565 support and the 55-day moving average near 1.1564. It also marked 1.1580 as potential resistance after the break, with levels near 1.1533 and 1.1490 to watch; these are analytical reference points, not guarantees of price direction.
September 16 therefore combines the effective date of the ECB's new rates with the conclusion of the Fed meeting. The implication for EUR/USD will depend on the Fed's decision and forward guidance because changes in the expected US-European yield differential typically affect relative demand for the dollar and euro.
Latest Updates · 3
- Notable·
Update: The single currency is facing additional downward pressure from rising energy prices, adding to the headwinds for the EUR/USD pair. This fundamental shift comes at a critical juncture as global markets await the Federal Reserve's policy decision to determine the dollar's next move.
- Notable·
Update: Market expectations have now converged on a near-certain 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve at the conclusion of its meeting on September 16. This consensus intensifies focus on how EUR/USD will react to the shifting yield differential as the Fed's move coincides with the effective date of the ECB's own rate increases.
- Notable·
Update: The EUR/USD pair resumed its decline on September 14, 2026, breaking below the 1.1565 support level and the 55-day EMA. According to latest technical reports, this breakdown shifts the intraday bias further to the downside, with the pair now targeting the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1471 ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision.