EUR/USD at 1.15604 Before Sept. 15-16 Fed Meeting and New ECB Rates
Key Facts
Market attention now turns to the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for September 15-16.
The two-day meeting concludes on September 16 and is associated with a Summary of Economic Projections, according to the Federal Reserve calendar. September 16—not the meeting’s first day—is therefore its official concluding date.
The ECB had decided on September 10 to raise its three key interest rates by 25 basis points. The deposit rate rises to 2.50%, the main refinancing rate to 2.65% and the marginal lending rate to 2.90%, effective September 16.
That marks the ECB’s second rate increase of 2026. The previous increase took effect on June 17, when the deposit rate rose to 2.25%, the main refinancing rate to 2.40% and the marginal lending rate to 2.65%.
The ECB attributed its September tightening to inflation pressure generated by the Middle East conflict. It projects headline inflation at 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028, compared with its 2% medium-term target.
September 16 combines the effective date of the ECB’s new rates with the conclusion of the Fed meeting. If a Fed surprise raises U.S. rate expectations relative to those abroad, the wider expected differential would tend to support the dollar; the reverse could benefit the euro. The actual response will depend on the surprise and other exchange-rate drivers.
Latest Updates · 3
- Notable·
Update: The single currency is facing additional downward pressure from rising energy prices, adding to the headwinds for the EUR/USD pair. This fundamental shift comes at a critical juncture as global markets await the Federal Reserve's policy decision to determine the dollar's next move.
- Notable·
Update: Market expectations have now converged on a near-certain 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve at the conclusion of its meeting on September 16. This consensus intensifies focus on how EUR/USD will react to the shifting yield differential as the Fed's move coincides with the effective date of the ECB's own rate increases.
- Notable·
Update: The EUR/USD pair resumed its decline on September 14, 2026, breaking below the 1.1565 support level and the 55-day EMA. According to latest technical reports, this breakdown shifts the intraday bias further to the downside, with the pair now targeting the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1471 ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision.