DXY Tops 99.26 as Rate-Hike Bets Rise Ahead of Fed Decision

Key Facts

The US Dollar Index, DXY, moved above 99.26 and traded near 99.32 in early trading on September 14, 2026, according to technical analysis published by FXEmpire. The move came before the Federal Open Market Committee's September 15-16 meeting, with the decision due on September 16.

FXEmpire estimated an 86% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase. For comparison, CME had recorded a 58% probability after labor-market data and cited 68% in a separate update, illustrating how quickly pricing shifted before the meeting.

Those probabilities reflect expectations derived from trading in 30-day Federal Funds futures; they are not an official Federal Reserve forecast or commitment. The estimates can therefore change with prices and incoming data until the decision is released.

Technically, the analysis identified 99.39 as the nearest resistance after the move above 99.26, followed by 99.50 and 99.62. A reversal below 99.26 would refocus attention on support at 99.09 and 98.98; these are 1-hour analytical levels, not guaranteed price outcomes.

Dollar strength coincided with weakness in the two major European pairs. EUR/USD traded near 1.1569 after breaking a rising trendline and 1.1592, while GBP/USD traded near 1.3505 and remained below 1.3529 on the 2-hour timeframe, according to the same analysis.

The move also followed the European Central Bank's 25-basis-point increase in its key rates on September 10, while the Bank of England's decision is scheduled for publication on September 17. The dollar's performance therefore depends on relative policy paths, not solely on the Federal Reserve's decision.

Attention will center on the September 16 decision and Federal Reserve guidance. An outcome more hawkish than prevailing pricing could support DXY toward 99.39, while a less hawkish result could bring 99.09 back into focus; this remains a conditional inference dependent on the market reaction.