Measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level compared to the same month in the previous year. It is a primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. High readings suggest a robust economy and increased consumer confidence, often leading to inflationary pressure.
Calculated by surveying a broad sample of retail firms of various sizes and types across the country. The data is then weighted to represent the entire retail sector and adjusted for seasonal variations to ensure accuracy.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2026 | 14.50 | 14.20 | +0.30 |
| Jul 3, 2026 | 14.80 | 12.60 | +2.20 |
| Jun 3, 2026 | 11.80 | 13.00 | -1.20 |
| May 3, 2026 | 12.10 | 10.00 | +2.10 |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 8.50 | 9.60 | -1.10 |
| Feb 6, 2026 | 9.30 | 9.00 | +0.30 |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 9.80 | — | — |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 7.10 | 6.70 | +0.40 |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 7.20 | 11.80 | -4.60 |
| Oct 6, 2025 | 11.30 | 8.00 | +3.30 |
| Sep 6, 2025 | 10.60 | 8.80 | +1.80 |
| Aug 6, 2025 | 9.20 | 7.70 | +1.50 |
| Jul 6, 2025 | 8.30 | 5.00 | +3.30 |
| Jul 5, 2025 | 8.30 | 5.00 | +3.30 |
| Jun 6, 2025 | 10.20 | 10.80 | -0.60 |
| May 6, 2025 | 11.10 | 11.00 | +0.10 |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 10.80 | 7.10 | +3.70 |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 9.40 | — | — |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 9.50 | 9.80 | -0.30 |
| Jan 6, 2025 | 9.30 | 8.80 | +0.50 |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 8.80 | 6.90 | +1.90 |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 7.10 | 6.90 | +0.20 |
| Oct 6, 2024 | 7.60 | 7.10 | +0.50 |
| Sep 6, 2024 | 7.90 | 9.50 | -1.60 |
| Jul 29, 2024 | 9.40 | 8.70 | +0.70 |
| Jun 29, 2024 | 9.10 | 11.90 | -2.80 |
| May 29, 2024 | 9.50 | 8.20 | +1.30 |
| Apr 29, 2024 | 9.00 | 10.00 | -1.00 |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 8.50 | 7.00 | +1.50 |
| Jan 29, 2024 | 8.10 | 8.00 | +0.10 |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 9.30 | 5.00 | +4.30 |
| Nov 29, 2023 | 10.10 | 6.00 | +4.10 |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 7.00 | 8.30 | -1.30 |
