Overall Net Capital Flows

Overall Net Capital Flows is the headline line 30 of Treasury reports, called Monthly Net TIC Flows. TIC means Treasury International Capital, the system tracking cross-border portfolio holdings and flows in tradeable bonds and stocks. It covers United States and foreign residents, counting branches by location, but excludes direct investment of 10% or more voting stock and Government transactions.

It sums lines 21, 22 and 29 in billions of dollars without seasonal adjustment. Positive means net inflow, negative means net outflow, split into private investors and official institutions.

The Treasury publishes it monthly for each calendar reference month, with positions as of the last business day. It appears 1.5 months later on the 11th business day plus 0 to 3 days at 4:00 PM Washington time, delayed if offices are closed.

Tables show billions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted, alongside full tables, holder data and quarterly files. January, April, July and October revisions cover the past year, other months cover 3 months, with no target. March, June, September and December releases coincide with quarterly releases.

Three parts sum to the headline, and each can pull it in a different direction.

• Net foreign acquisition of long-term securities: It captures net cross-border trades in securities with over 1 year maturity, plus estimated adjustments.

• Short-term custody increase: It captures monthly change in Treasury bills and other dollar liabilities held for foreigners.

• Change in banks' own net dollar liabilities: It captures banking flows owed to foreigners, and it often swings the headline.

• Private versus official split: It divides each part into private investors, including international organisations, and official institutions. Results are blurred by transaction bias, as routing through Britain, Belgium, Luxembourg, Switzerland and Caribbean centres hides true owners.

The August 2022 data were released October 18, 2022. The headline was a $275.6 billion inflow, with $292.9 billion private inflows and $17.3 billion official outflows. Long-term securities added $185.9 billion, short-term custody added $53.3 billion, including $45.0 billion in Treasury bills, and banking added $36.4 billion.

Official institutions sold $9.8 billion of long-term United States securities, so private buying masked official selling. The July 2022 column showed a $154.0 billion inflow from only $6.2 billion long-term plus $24.9 billion short-term and $123.0 billion banking.

1. Domestic securities net: Gross United States sales of domestic securities minus gross purchases. Positive means foreigners bought more, so money flowed in.

1. Foreign securities net: Gross United States sales of foreign securities minus gross purchases. Negative means Americans bought more abroad, so money flowed out.

1. Net long-term transactions: Add the 2 results above. Formula: LT = D + F.

1. Net long-term acquisition: Add adjustments for stock swaps and nontradeable official bonds; asset-backed repayment estimates are 0 after January 2023. Formula: NLT = LT + O.

1. Headline: Add long-term acquisition plus short-term custody increase plus banking change, in billions of dollars without seasonal adjustment. Illustrative example in billions: 6.2 + 24.9 + 123.0 = 154.1, near published 154.0 on rounding.

1. Private and official split: Divide each part and the headline into private investors and official institutions. Every dollar counts equally, with no weights. In the example, private was 150.6 billion and official was 3.4 billion.