Goods Trade Balance

The Goods Trade Balance is the goods part of the FT-900, the joint monthly trade report, defined as goods exports minus goods imports. It is published monthly by the Census Bureau for goods with the Bureau of Economic Analysis, under the International Trade Statistical Program. It covers physical merchandise moving between foreign countries and the U.S. Customs Territory. Coverage includes the 50 states, DC, Puerto Rico, Foreign Trade Zones, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, for government and non-government shipments.

The goods data count every Customs document, not a sample, and are subject to reporting and timing errors rather than sampling error. The balance excludes services, goods in transit, and trade with possessions outside Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. It also excludes military own-use shipments, monetary gold and coins, carrier fuel, warranty repairs, and personal effects.

The statistical month for imports is the release month by Customs, while for exports it is the date goods leave the United States. Releases occur monthly at 8:30 Eastern Time, on average 34 to 36 days after the measured month, with full coverage. An earlier snapshot with nearly complete coverage appears in the Advance Economic Indicators Report, on average 24 to 26 days after month end. Each release shows services, 140 export and 140 import end-use categories summed to 6 aggregates, 3-month moving averages, country detail, and year to date totals.

Each release revises prior month aggregates for late documents, updates inflation adjusted values quarterly for price indexes, and realigns data yearly to annual totals. The release feeds gross domestic product estimates and states no target or trading rule.

Exports and imports are grouped into 6 end-use groups, and the balance sums across them. The deficit widens when imports grow faster than exports, even if exports rise.

• Foods, feeds, and beverages: agricultural and food goods for consumption or processing.
• Industrial supplies and materials: crude oil, petroleum products, metals, chemicals, and nonmonetary gold, often the most volatile group.
• Capital goods, except automotives: machinery, computers, semiconductors, and aircraft related equipment.
• Automotive vehicles, parts and engines: finished vehicles plus parts and engines.
• Consumer goods (nonfood), except auto: pharmaceuticals, cell phones, and household goods.
• Other goods: leftover goods not classified elsewhere.

A wider deficit can reflect faster import growth, not falling exports, with the same component driving both sides. Nominal and inflation adjusted balances can move together when price change affects both sides. Reading exports and imports separately shows whether widening comes from stronger demand or weaker sales.

1. Export valuation (f.a.s.): Value exports free alongside ship, meaning price at the U.S. port including inland freight and insurance to the ship, excluding loading and onward transport. Exports to Canada use Canadian import data under an agreement with Canada.
2. Import valuation (Customs value): Value imports at Customs value, meaning price paid for export to the U.S., excluding duties, freight, and insurance to the U.S. Use general imports, not imports for consumption, and show CIF value as Customs value plus import charges.
3. Low-value estimates: Add estimates for shipments below filing limits, using 2500 dollars for exports and 2000 dollars and 250 dollars for imports, based on ratios by country.
4. Seasonal adjustment: Adjust detail with X-13ARIMA-SEATS at 140 categories, then sum to 6 aggregates; headline balances use adjusted data.
5. Balance formula: Subtract imports from exports, so B equals X minus M; negative is a deficit and positive is a surplus. For example, 200.0 in exports minus 320.0 in imports equals a 120.0 deficit.
6. Balance-of-payments basis: Add BEA net adjustments for coverage, such as gold at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and deflate inflation adjusted series with price indexes.