Part of the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), this represents the 'dot plot' estimate for the federal funds rate in the long run. It reflects the FOMC members' view of the neutral real interest rate that is consistent with full employment and price stability over time. This projection helps markets understand the Fed's ultimate destination for interest rates beyond the current business cycle.
Calculated as the median value of individual projections made by the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Each member provides their estimate of where the interest rate should settle in the long term.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | 3.20 | — | — |
| Jun 17, 2026 | 3.10 | — | — |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3.10 | — | — |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 3.00 | — | — |
| Sep 17, 2025 | 3.00 | — | — |
The latest reading is 1.4 standard deviations above the mean.
