Part of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), this indicator reflects the individual FOMC members' expectations for the federal funds rate over the next few years. It is widely known as the 'dot plot' and serves as a forward-looking guide for the Fed's policy path. Investors use these projections to gauge the timing and frequency of potential rate hikes or cuts.
Each FOMC member provides a 'dot' representing their view of the appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of each calendar year. The median of these dots is often cited as the official projection.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | 4.10 | — | — |
| Jun 17, 2026 | 3.80 | — | — |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3.40 | — | — |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 3.60 | — | — |
| Sep 17, 2025 | 3.60 | — | — |
The latest reading is 1.5 standard deviations above the mean.
