The Interest Rate Projection for the 3rd Year is a key component of the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), released four times a year. It represents the median expectation of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members for the federal funds rate at the end of the third forecast year. This forward-looking indicator, often visualized in the 'dot plot,' helps markets understand the central bank's long-term policy trajectory and its assessment of the neutral interest rate. It is highly influential for long-dated Treasury yields and global capital allocation strategies.
Each FOMC member provides an individual estimate of the appropriate federal funds rate for the end of the third calendar year. The Federal Reserve then calculates and publishes the median of these individual projections as the official forecast value.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | 3.60 | — | — |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 3.10 | — | — |
| Sep 17, 2025 | 3.10 | — | — |
The latest reading is 1.2 standard deviations above the mean.
