This indicator represents the median projection of the federal funds rate by FOMC members for the end of the second full calendar year from the current date. It is a key component of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), often referred to as the 'Dot Plot'. This forward-looking data helps market participants understand the Federal Reserve's intended path for monetary policy over a medium-term horizon.
The value is the median of individual projections submitted by each FOMC member, where each member indicates their view of the appropriate target level for the federal funds rate.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | 3.90 | — | — |
| Jun 17, 2026 | 3.40 | — | — |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3.10 | — | — |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 3.10 | — | — |
| Sep 17, 2025 | 3.10 | — | — |
The latest reading is 1.7 standard deviations above the mean.
