This indicator represents the median expectation of FOMC members for the federal funds rate at the end of the first calendar year. It is a key component of the Summary of Economic Projections, often referred to as the 'Dot Plot'. Investors use these projections to gauge the Federal Reserve's intended path for monetary policy and the pace of potential interest rate changes.
The value is calculated as the median of the individual interest rate forecasts submitted by the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | 4.10 | — | — |
| Jun 17, 2026 | 3.60 | — | — |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3.10 | — | — |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 3.40 | — | — |
| Sep 17, 2025 | 3.40 | — | — |
The latest reading is 1.6 standard deviations above the mean.
