The Fed Interest Rate Decision is the most significant event in the global financial calendar, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sets the target range for the federal funds rate. This rate influences borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, affecting everything from mortgages to corporate loans. The decision is based on the Fed's dual mandate of maintaining price stability and achieving maximum sustainable employment. Changes in the rate are used to either stimulate economic growth or cool down an overheating economy.
The decision is reached through a vote by the members of the FOMC after reviewing a wide range of economic indicators, including inflation, employment data, and global market conditions. The committee meets eight times a year to deliberate on these policy adjustments.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | — | 4.00 | — |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 0.00 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 0.00 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 0.00 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 0.00 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 0.00 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 0.00 |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 |
| Jul 30, 2025 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 0.00 |
| Jun 18, 2025 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 0.00 |
| May 7, 2025 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 0.00 |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 0.00 |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 0.00 |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 0.00 |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 0.00 |
| Sep 18, 2024 | 5.00 | 5.25 | -0.25 |
| Jul 31, 2024 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 0.00 |
| Jun 12, 2024 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 0.00 |
| May 1, 2024 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 0.00 |
| Mar 20, 2024 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 0.00 |
| Jan 31, 2024 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 0.00 |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 0.00 |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 0.00 |
| Sep 20, 2023 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 0.00 |
| Jul 26, 2023 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 0.00 |
| Jun 14, 2023 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 0.00 |
| May 3, 2023 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 0.00 |
| Mar 22, 2023 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| Feb 1, 2023 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 0.00 |
| Dec 14, 2022 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 0.00 |
| Nov 2, 2022 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| Sep 21, 2022 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 0.00 |
| Jul 27, 2022 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 |
| Jun 15, 2022 | 1.75 | 1.50 | +0.25 |
| May 4, 2022 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Mar 16, 2022 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| Dec 15, 2021 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| Nov 3, 2021 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.00 |
The latest reading is within its usual range, less than one standard deviation from the mean.
