Used Car Prices YoY

Used Car Prices YoY is the 12-month percent change in the Used cars and trucks index, a private-transportation component of Consumer Price Index (CPI). It is published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and covers city residents, about 93 percent of the US population. It prices 480 vehicles aged 2 to 7 years, from subcompact to luxury cars plus pickups, vans and utility types.

It tracks price change as an index, not dollar prices, and leaves out private resales, trade-ins and new or leased vehicles.

Valuations are downloaded on the first of each month and compared with the first of the prior month. The index appears in the inflation release around the middle of the month after the reference month, embargoed until 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time (ET). It arrives with headline CPI, food, energy, core, the wage-earner and chained indexes, tables, a technical note and the next date. Unadjusted data are final at release and fit escalation contracts, while adjusted data fit trends and revise for five years each February.

The yearly reading is computed from unadjusted indexes, and BLS advises against using adjusted data in escalation deals since they revise yearly. There is no buy or sell threshold.

The publisher names no demand drivers, so valuation mechanics alone move this small slice near 2.391 percent with weights reset yearly.

• Used cars: pure price change for 2 to 7 year old subcompact, compact, sporty, intermediate, full and luxury cars.
• Used light trucks: pure price change for 2 to 7 year old pickups, vans and sport utility and specialty vehicles.

The release for February 2022 data came on March 10, 2022. Prices rose 41.2 percent over 12 months, from 150.221 to 212.040, at a 4.170 percent weight. In that same release the adjusted monthly change fell 0.2 percent while new vehicles rose 0.3 percent.

Headline CPI rose 7.9 percent over 12 months, the largest since January 1982, while gasoline, shelter and food lifted the monthly headline. The lesson is that a huge yearly gain can pair with a falling month, since the yearly span covers 12 unadjusted months.

1. Net weights: household spending data set shares from net outlays, which means purchases minus trade-ins and private resales, reset each January.

1. Sample: 480 vehicles aged 2 to 7 years are drawn from dealer transactions in proportion to sales across ten regions. The sample last rotated in 2018, and model years roll forward by one each September.

1. Monthly pricing and depreciation: each vehicle takes a valuation on the first and compares it with the prior first after removing aging. Aging is removed by comparing each car with its one-model-year younger counterpart.

1. Mileage and quality: each quote gets average mileage for its age, with extra miles worth less at high mileage. That age-based rule runs from January 2024 data, and before it each vehicle held one fixed median mileage. Quality gains from when new stay in, shrunk by each vehicle depreciation rate.

1. Averaging and YoY: adjusted ratios combine as a weighted geometric mean, so ratios 1.020 and 0.990 average to 1.00489, or plus 0.49 percent. Indexes at 200.00 versus 190.00 give plus 5.3 percent.

1. Index level: levels chain onto a 1982-1984 base equal to 100, so 107 means plus 7 percent since the base. Seasonal adjustment uses X-13ARIMA-SEATS, refreshed each February.