Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat

Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat is the US wheat part of Grain Stocks, a quarterly Principal Federal Economic Indicator. It estimates all wheat stored in all positions (on-farm plus commercial storage) in the United States, nationally and by state. It covers all wheat plus durum wheat (a hard wheat type) as a separate line inside the total. It measures physical inventory in bushels (a standard grain volume unit) only, not prices, exports, use, foreign stocks, production forecasts, or rice and peanut stocks.

The estimate rests on replies from about 56,000 farm operators and data from about 8,000 commercial facilities with 11.9 billion bushels of capacity. Stock estimates began March 1, 1943. In Arabic financial writing it is called U.S. wheat stocks.

Responses are usually collected during the first 2 weeks of March, June, September, and December for the 1st of the month. The report is released at noon Eastern Time at the end of the reference month, except December 1 estimates which appear in early January. Release dates are announced a year ahead, and staff finalize the numbers under lockup.

March pairs with Prospective Plantings and Rice Stocks, and June pairs with Acreage. September pairs with the Small Grains Summary. January pairs with the Crop Production Annual Summary and WASDE. WASDE means World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Stocks are revised next quarter and again in the following December report in January on late reports, errors, revised production, or Census review.

The total rises or falls with its two storage halves plus the harvest calendar and durum detail.

• On-farm stocks: wheat stored on farms, including whole grain for feed, seed, or sale, even grain under a government program.
• Off-farm stocks: wheat at mills, elevators, warehouses, terminals, and processors.
• Durum wheat: a hard wheat type shown separately and included in the all-wheat total.

On September 1, 2024, all wheat totaled 1.99 billion bushels, up 12% from a year earlier, as released September 30, 2024. On-farm stocks were 664 million bushels, up 11%, and off-farm stocks were 1.32 billion, up 13%. June-August 2024 indicated disappearance (implied quarterly use) was 682 million bushels, up 12%. June 1, 2024 old-crop stocks were 702 million bushels, up 23% before the new harvest, released June 28, 2024.

The June detail was 139 million bushels on farms and 563 million off farms, and March-May disappearance was 387 million bushels. Durum stocks on June 1, 2024 were 21.1 million bushels, down 24%, while all wheat was up 23%. The September rise reflects the new harvest, not weak demand. Small moves may reflect sampling error of 2.7%, or plus or minus 5.4% at 95% confidence.

1. On-farm estimation: Survey farm operators on stocks held at the reference date, then expand answers to totals, imputing (filling) missing replies from similar farms.
2. Off-farm estimation: Count every known commercial facility and sum reported stocks, adjusting for nonresponse with capacity data.
3. Totaling: Add the 2 estimates to get all-positions stocks, then compare with the year-ago level. For example, 664 million plus 1,322 million equals 1,986 million, reported as 1.99 billion, up 12% from 1,767 million. The exact gain is about 12.4%.
4. Balance-sheet validation: Check beginning stocks, production, use, and ending stocks for reasonable balance using trade, milling, and farm loan data.
5. Board consensus: The Agricultural Statistics Board fixes the national total under lockup, then fits states to it.
6. Indicated disappearance: Quarterly use equals starting stocks plus entering production minus ending stocks, with no seasonal adjustment. Wheat quarters run June-August, September-November, December-February, and March-May.