EIA Distillate Stocks Change

It is the Difference column for distillate fuel oil stocks in Tables 4 and 6 of the Weekly Petroleum Status Report. It equals current-week stocks minus prior-week stocks, in million barrels. The publisher is the US Energy Information Administration, working through its Weekly Petroleum Supply Reporting System.

This system belongs to the wider Petroleum Supply Reporting System. Arabic calendars list it as the EIA weekly refined-stocks event. The weekly sample ranks reporters largest-first until it covers about 90% of volumes, with about 1200 respondents across refineries, terminals and pipelines.

Distillate means diesel fuel and heating oil. It does not measure final consumer use or secondary stocks in shops, trucks and homes. The agency sets no target or neutral line for the change.

Each reading covers Friday 7:01 am to the next Friday 7:00 am, and reporters file by Monday 5:00 pm. Tables and Highlights appear Wednesday at 10:30 am Eastern Time for the week ending the prior Friday, and the full report follows at 1:00 pm. Weeks with federal holidays shift later, usually to Thursday.

Each release adds output, stocks, imports, exports, prices and charts.

Weekly figures are a snapshot and are not generally revised, while the monthly survey is final. A published week changes only for a substantive reason, in the next scheduled release. Firms must resubmit errors above 5%, and late data feed future weeks, not the published one.

Table 6 splits stocks by sulfur grade and by Petroleum Administration for Defense District, under a US headline total. The agency sets no bands for the change, so readers compare the level with its 5-year high-low range.

• Total Distillate Fuel Oil: US headline level in million barrels; its weekly difference is the indicator.
• 15 ppm sulfur and under: ultra-low-sulfur grade, about 90% of stocks, used as on-highway diesel and heating oil.
• Greater than 15 ppm to 500 ppm sulfur: smaller mid-sulfur grade for heating and off-road use.
• Greater than 500 ppm sulfur: smallest high-sulfur grade.

The week ending 29 December 2023, released 4 January 2024 after a holiday delay, shows two lessons. Distillate stocks rose 10.1 million barrels, from 115.8 to 125.9, yet stood about 6% below the 5-year average. In the same week crude stocks fell 5.5 million barrels to 431.1, about 2% below average, while gasoline stocks rose 10.9 million barrels to 237.0. A large build can thus leave the level tight, while crude and gasoline move the other way.

1. Collect: EIA surveys refineries, terminals and pipelines on Forms 800, 801, 802 and 805 for the Friday to Friday window, due Monday 5:00 pm.
2. Impute: gaps use an exponentially smoothed mean of each firm's own recent reports. The formula is Yt = α * yt + (1 - α) * Yt-1, with α between 0 and 1. The weight is higher for stocks and low for imports.
3. Expand: each plant type is scaled by Wt = (Mt / Ms) * Ws from the weekly sample and lagged monthly totals. The ratio can shift for unusual events the monthly data miss. For illustration, sampled refineries at 50.0 with a 220.0 over 200.0 ratio give 55.0 million barrels.
4. Aggregate: the US total sums refinery, terminal and pipeline estimates, then review and publication follow in million barrels. The parts sum as 55.0 plus 45.0 plus 20.0, giving 120.0. The method describes no seasonal adjustment.
5. Differencing: the indicator is current stocks minus prior stocks. With a total of 120.0 against 118.0, the change is a build of 2.0 million barrels.