The Philly Fed New Orders index is a key component of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. It specifically tracks the volume of new purchase orders received by manufacturers within the Third Federal Reserve District. Because new orders precede production and employment, this index is considered a highly sensitive leading indicator of future industrial activity and broader economic health.
The index is calculated as a diffusion index: the percentage of manufacturers reporting an increase in orders minus the percentage reporting a decrease. A positive value indicates that more firms are seeing growth in orders than a decline.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | 30.10 | — | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | 37.00 | — | — |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 27.30 | — | — |
| May 21, 2026 | -1.70 | — | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | 33.00 | — | — |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 8.60 | — | — |
| Feb 19, 2026 | 11.70 | — | — |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 14.40 | — | — |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 5.00 | — | — |
| Nov 20, 2025 | -8.60 | — | — |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 18.20 | — | — |
| Sep 18, 2025 | 12.40 | — | — |
| Aug 21, 2025 | -1.90 | — | — |
| Jul 17, 2025 | 18.40 | — | — |
| Jun 20, 2025 | 2.30 | — | — |
| May 15, 2025 | 7.50 | — | — |
| Apr 17, 2025 | -34.20 | — | — |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 8.70 | — | — |
| Feb 20, 2025 | 21.90 | — | — |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 42.90 | — | — |
| Dec 19, 2024 | -4.30 | — | — |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 8.90 | — | — |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 14.20 | — | — |
| Sep 19, 2024 | -1.50 | — | — |
| Aug 15, 2024 | 14.60 | — | — |
| Jul 18, 2024 | 20.70 | — | — |
| Jun 20, 2024 | -2.20 | — | — |
| May 16, 2024 | -7.90 | — | — |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 12.20 | — | — |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 5.40 | — | — |
| Feb 15, 2024 | -5.20 | — | — |
| Jan 18, 2024 | -17.90 | — | — |
| Dec 21, 2023 | -25.60 | — | — |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 1.30 | — | — |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 4.40 | — | — |
| Sep 21, 2023 | -10.20 | — | — |
| Aug 17, 2023 | 16.00 | -13.50 | +29.50 |
| Jul 20, 2023 | -15.90 | -10.00 | -5.90 |
| Jun 15, 2023 | -11.00 | -15.80 | +4.80 |
| May 18, 2023 | -8.90 | -25.70 | +16.80 |
| Apr 20, 2023 | -22.70 | -21.20 | -1.50 |
| Mar 16, 2023 | -28.20 | -11.00 | -17.20 |
| Feb 16, 2023 | -13.60 | -9.00 | -4.60 |
| Jan 19, 2023 | -10.90 | -23.00 | +12.10 |
| Dec 15, 2022 | -25.80 | -5.00 | -20.80 |
| Nov 17, 2022 | -16.20 | -13.00 | -3.20 |
| Oct 20, 2022 | -15.90 | -13.00 | -2.90 |
| Sep 15, 2022 | -17.60 | -2.00 | -15.60 |
| Aug 18, 2022 | -5.10 | -19.00 | +13.90 |
| Jul 21, 2022 | -24.80 | -9.00 | -15.80 |
