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Philly Fed New Orders

United StatesOtherMonthlyPointsLow
SummaryAbout This Indicator4Historical Data61
Latest release · October 15, 2026 · 12:30 UTC
4.30Points
No forecast was recorded for this release
Last five prints
27.337.0030.129.24.30

The reading has fallen in each of the last 3 releases.

Forecast
—
Previous
29.2Actual is lower by 24.9

About This Indicator

4 questions

Philly Fed New Orders is a monthly diffusion index from the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS) that measures order-book breadth. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia publishes it for the Third District: Delaware, southern New Jersey, and eastern and central Pennsylvania. It tracks the direction and breadth of orders versus the prior month, not dollar value.

The District serves as a proxy for United States manufacturing. Running since May 1968, the index ranges from -100 to +100 with 0 neutral, while headline general activity comes from a separate question.

Responses are collected electronically over an 8-day period closing on the Monday before publication, with voluntary participation. Results are usually published at 8:30 AM ET on the third Thursday of each month, barring holidays, with the text file first.

Each release carries current and six-month-ahead indexes with their shares, plus charts, PDFs, and history back to May 1968. An interactive explorer covers the same span, and next-year dates are posted each November. Seasonal factors are re-estimated each January, bringing minor revisions to past adjusted values, while quarterly price expectations appear in a separate release.

It is a single-question index with no stated weights; each firm counts equally, and 10 sibling indexes appear alongside it. None of the indexes feeds into any other.

  • General activity: the headline gauge of overall business conditions.
  • Shipments and unfilled orders: what shipped versus orders still on the books.
  • Delivery times and inventories: how fast inputs arrive and how stocks stand.
  • Prices paid and received: input costs versus selling prices.
  • Employment, hours, and capital spending: headcount, the average workweek, and investment plans, the last for future expectations only.
  • Special questions: rotating topics such as price expectations, wages, and capacity use.

On April 16, 2020, current New Orders fell to -70.9, its lowest reading ever, with 0.0% reporting higher orders, 28.1% no change, and 70.9% lower. Future New Orders held steady at 36.5 on 54.7% expecting higher orders, while future general activity rose to 43.0.

Separate questions can therefore point in opposite directions. The episode shows breadth, not size: -70.9 meant contraction was near universal, not that orders fell 70.9%. Two months earlier, February 2020 read 33.6, its highest since May 2018, before the March to April collapse.

  1. Ask: each manufacturer reports whether new orders rose, showed no change, or fell versus the prior month, plus expectations for the next 6 months.
  2. Shares: answers become three shares: increase, no change, and decrease.
  3. Seasonal adjustment: the three shares are each adjusted with monthly seasonal factors from the Census Bureau X-12 procedure, re-estimated each January.
  4. Diffusion index: the adjusted decrease share is subtracted from the adjusted increase share, ignoring no change; for example, 40% minus 15% gives 25.0.
  5. Scale: results range from -100 to +100 with 0 neutral when both shares match; shares may not sum to 100% through rounding or omissions.

Key point

a rise from 5 to 20 means growth was more widespread, not faster, and -70.9 never meant orders fell 70.9%.

Historical Data

View data as table
DateActualForecastSurprise
Oct 15, 20264.30——
Sep 17, 202629.20——
Aug 20, 202630.10——
Jul 16, 202637.00——
Jun 18, 202627.30——
May 21, 2026-1.70——
Apr 16, 202633.00——
Mar 19, 20268.60——
Feb 19, 202611.70——
Jan 15, 202614.40——
Dec 18, 20255.00——
Nov 20, 2025-8.60——
Oct 16, 202518.20——
Sep 18, 202512.40——
Aug 21, 2025-1.90——
Jul 17, 202518.40——
Jun 20, 20252.30——
May 15, 20257.50——
Apr 17, 2025-34.20——
Mar 20, 20258.70——
Feb 20, 202521.90——
Jan 16, 202542.90——
Dec 19, 2024-4.30——
Nov 21, 20248.90——
Oct 17, 202414.20——
Sep 19, 2024-1.50——
Aug 15, 202414.60——
Jul 18, 202420.70——
Jun 20, 2024-2.20——
May 16, 2024-7.90——
Apr 18, 202412.20——
Mar 21, 20245.40——
Feb 15, 2024-5.20——
Jan 18, 2024-17.90——
Dec 21, 2023-25.60——
Nov 16, 20231.30——
Oct 19, 20234.40——
Sep 21, 2023-10.20——
Aug 17, 202316.00-13.50+29.50
Jul 20, 2023-15.90-10.00-5.90
Jun 15, 2023-11.00-15.80+4.80
May 18, 2023-8.90-25.70+16.80
Apr 20, 2023-22.70-21.20-1.50
Mar 16, 2023-28.20-11.00-17.20
Feb 16, 2023-13.60-9.00-4.60
Jan 19, 2023-10.90-23.00+12.10
Dec 15, 2022-25.80-5.00-20.80
Nov 17, 2022-16.20-13.00-3.20
Oct 20, 2022-15.90-13.00-2.90
Sep 15, 2022-17.60-2.00-15.60

Indicator questions

Source · Federal Reserve Bank of PhiladelphiaView Source

Statistics

61 readings
  • Mean7.34
  • Std Deviation16.5
  • TrendFalling
  • Year-over-year change-8.10
Latest reading against its usual range (mean ± one standard deviation)
4.30-9.177.3423.8

The latest reading is within its usual range, less than one standard deviation from the mean.