The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, officially known as the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey, tracks manufacturing activity in the Third Federal Reserve District. It is widely considered a reliable barometer for the health of the U.S. industrial sector due to its long history and correlation with national trends. The survey covers various components including new orders, shipments, and employment. Like other regional Fed surveys, a positive value indicates expansion in the sector.
The survey is sent to manufacturing executives in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware. The headline index represents the diffusion index for general business activity, calculated as the percentage of 'increase' responses minus 'decrease' responses.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | — | 7.00 | — |
| Aug 20, 2026 | 47.40 | 25.00 | +22.40 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | 41.40 | 13.00 | +28.40 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 10.30 | 10.00 | +0.30 |
| May 21, 2026 | -0.40 | 18.00 | -18.40 |
| Apr 16, 2026 | 26.70 | 10.00 | +16.70 |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 18.10 | 10.00 | +8.10 |
| Feb 19, 2026 | 16.30 | 8.50 | +7.80 |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 12.60 | -2.00 | +14.60 |
| Dec 18, 2025 | -10.20 | 3.00 | -13.20 |
| Nov 20, 2025 | -1.70 | -3.10 | +1.40 |
| Oct 16, 2025 | -12.80 | 10.00 | -22.80 |
| Sep 18, 2025 | 23.20 | 2.30 | +20.90 |
| Aug 21, 2025 | -0.30 | 7.00 | -7.30 |
| Jul 17, 2025 | 15.90 | -1.00 | +16.90 |
| Jun 20, 2025 | -4.00 | -1.00 | -3.00 |
| May 15, 2025 | -4.00 | -11.00 | +7.00 |
| Apr 17, 2025 | -26.40 | 2.00 | -28.40 |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 12.50 | 8.50 | +4.00 |
| Feb 20, 2025 | 18.10 | 20.00 | -1.90 |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 44.30 | -5.00 | +49.30 |
| Dec 19, 2024 | -16.40 | 3.00 | -19.40 |
| Nov 21, 2024 | -5.50 | 8.00 | -13.50 |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 10.30 | 3.00 | +7.30 |
| Sep 19, 2024 | 1.70 | -1.00 | +2.70 |
| Aug 15, 2024 | -7.00 | 7.00 | -14.00 |
| Jul 18, 2024 | 13.90 | 2.90 | +11.00 |
| Jun 20, 2024 | 1.30 | 5.00 | -3.70 |
| May 16, 2024 | 4.50 | 8.00 | -3.50 |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 15.50 | 1.50 | +14.00 |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3.20 | -2.30 | +5.50 |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 5.20 | -8.00 | +13.20 |
| Jan 18, 2024 | -10.60 | -7.00 | -3.60 |
| Dec 21, 2023 | -10.50 | -3.00 | -7.50 |
| Nov 16, 2023 | -5.90 | -9.00 | +3.10 |
| Oct 19, 2023 | -9.00 | -6.40 | -2.60 |
| Sep 21, 2023 | -13.50 | -0.70 | -12.80 |
| Aug 17, 2023 | 12.00 | -10.00 | +22.00 |
| Jul 20, 2023 | -13.50 | -10.00 | -3.50 |
| Jun 15, 2023 | -13.70 | -14.00 | +0.30 |
| May 18, 2023 | -10.40 | -19.80 | +9.40 |
| Apr 20, 2023 | -31.30 | -19.20 | -12.10 |
| Mar 16, 2023 | -23.20 | -15.60 | -7.60 |
| Feb 16, 2023 | -24.30 | -7.40 | -16.90 |
| Jan 19, 2023 | -8.90 | -11.00 | +2.10 |
| Dec 15, 2022 | -13.80 | -10.00 | -3.80 |
| Nov 17, 2022 | -19.40 | -6.20 | -13.20 |
| Oct 20, 2022 | -8.70 | -5.00 | -3.70 |
| Sep 15, 2022 | -9.90 | 2.80 | -12.70 |
| Aug 18, 2022 | 6.20 | -5.00 | +11.20 |
| Jul 21, 2022 | -12.30 | -1.20 | -11.10 |
