The Empire State Manufacturing Index is a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It is one of the first regional manufacturing reports released each month, making it a highly anticipated leading indicator for the national ISM Manufacturing PMI. A reading above zero indicates that manufacturing conditions are expanding, while a reading below zero suggests contraction. The headline index is derived from a single question about the overall business climate.
The index is based on a survey sent to about 200 manufacturing executives. It is a diffusion index calculated by subtracting the percentage of respondents reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | — | -9.00 | — |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 20.60 | 11.00 | +9.60 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | 15.60 | 8.80 | +6.80 |
| Jun 15, 2026 | 5.70 | 14.00 | -8.30 |
| May 15, 2026 | 19.60 | 7.50 | +12.10 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | 11.00 | -0.50 | +11.50 |
| Mar 16, 2026 | -0.20 | 3.20 | -3.40 |
| Feb 17, 2026 | 7.10 | 7.00 | +0.10 |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 7.70 | 1.00 | +6.70 |
| Dec 15, 2025 | -3.90 | 10.00 | -13.90 |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 18.70 | 6.00 | +12.70 |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 10.70 | -1.00 | +11.70 |
| Sep 15, 2025 | -8.70 | 5.00 | -13.70 |
| Aug 15, 2025 | 11.90 | 1.00 | +10.90 |
| Jul 15, 2025 | 5.50 | -9.00 | +14.50 |
| Jun 16, 2025 | -16.00 | -5.50 | -10.50 |
| May 15, 2025 | -9.20 | -10.00 | +0.80 |
| Apr 15, 2025 | -8.10 | -14.50 | +6.40 |
| Mar 17, 2025 | -20.00 | -0.75 | -19.25 |
| Feb 18, 2025 | 5.70 | -1.00 | +6.70 |
| Jan 15, 2025 | -12.60 | 3.00 | -15.60 |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 0.20 | 12.00 | -11.80 |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 31.20 | -0.70 | +31.90 |
| Oct 15, 2024 | -11.90 | 3.80 | -15.70 |
| Sep 16, 2024 | 11.50 | -3.90 | +15.40 |
| Aug 15, 2024 | -4.70 | -6.00 | +1.30 |
| Jul 15, 2024 | -6.60 | -6.00 | -0.60 |
| Jun 17, 2024 | -6.00 | -9.00 | +3.00 |
| May 15, 2024 | -15.60 | -10.00 | -5.60 |
| Apr 15, 2024 | -14.30 | -9.00 | -5.30 |
| Mar 15, 2024 | -20.90 | -7.00 | -13.90 |
| Feb 15, 2024 | -2.40 | -15.00 | +12.60 |
| Jan 16, 2024 | -43.70 | -5.00 | -38.70 |
| Dec 15, 2023 | -14.50 | 2.00 | -16.50 |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 9.10 | -2.80 | +11.90 |
| Oct 16, 2023 | -4.60 | -7.00 | +2.40 |
| Sep 15, 2023 | 1.90 | -10.00 | +11.90 |
| Aug 15, 2023 | -19.00 | -1.00 | -18.00 |
| Jul 17, 2023 | 1.10 | -4.30 | +5.40 |
| Jun 15, 2023 | 6.60 | -15.10 | +21.70 |
| May 15, 2023 | -31.80 | -3.75 | -28.05 |
| Apr 17, 2023 | 10.80 | -18.00 | +28.80 |
| Mar 15, 2023 | -24.60 | -8.00 | -16.60 |
| Feb 15, 2023 | -5.80 | -18.00 | +12.20 |
| Jan 17, 2023 | -32.90 | -9.00 | -23.90 |
| Dec 15, 2022 | -11.20 | -1.00 | -10.20 |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 4.50 | -5.00 | +9.50 |
| Oct 17, 2022 | -9.10 | -4.00 | -5.10 |
| Sep 15, 2022 | -1.50 | -13.00 | +11.50 |
| Aug 15, 2022 | -31.30 | 5.00 | -36.30 |
| Jul 15, 2022 | 11.10 | -2.00 | +13.10 |
