NY Empire State Manufacturing Index

The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is the headline gauge of a monthly factory survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It has run since April 2002, using data back to July 2001. It covers manufacturers in New York State across varied industries, with no single industry dominating responses.

The survey goes to about 200 manufacturing executives, usually presidents or chief executives, and draws about 100 replies. The headline general business conditions index is a standalone question, not an average, and it equals the share reporting improvement minus the share reporting decline.

Survey forms go out on the 1st of the reference month, most replies arrive by the 10th, and responses are accepted until the 15th. Results are released near the middle of the same month, at or shortly after 8:30 AM Eastern Time.

Each release publishes current-month and six-month-ahead diffusion indexes with tables, charts and commentary, plus downloadable history files and occasional supplemental reports. Each January applies new seasonal factors to past data, without changing the zero line.

Each gauge is its own diffusion index, so movement comes from shifting answer shares rather than fixed weights.

• General business conditions: whether overall conditions improved or worsened versus the prior month, forming the headline reading.
• New orders, shipments and unfilled orders: whether incoming orders, goods shipped and backlogs rose or fell versus the prior month.
• Delivery time, supply availability and inventories: whether delivery times lengthened, supply availability shifted and inventories rose or fell versus the prior month.
• Prices paid and prices received: whether input prices paid and selling prices received rose or fell versus the prior month.
• Number of employees and average workweek: whether headcount and average weekly hours rose or fell versus the prior month.
• Six-month-ahead expectations, capital expenditures and technology spending: what firms expect in six months, including plans for capital and technology spending.

Responses for June 2020 were collected June 2 to June 9, 2020, and the headline climbed 48 points to -0.2, so activity held steady. That followed -78.2 in April and -48.5 in May, with 36% reporting improvement and 36% reporting decline. New orders rose 42 points to near 0 and shipments rose 42 points to 3.3, yet employment stayed at -3.5 and the workweek at -12.0. Future business conditions instead rose 27 points to 56.5, a clear split between the present and the outlook.

1. Answer shares: For each gauge, count the share reporting increase, no change and decrease versus the prior month.
2. Diffusion subtraction: Subtract the share reporting decrease from the share reporting increase: 27% minus 22% equals +5, on a scale from -100 to +100.
3. Zero break point: Positive values mean more firms report improvement, negative values mean more report decline, and 0 means balance.
4. Seasonal adjustment: Where seasonal patterns exist, the increase and decrease shares are adjusted separately using Census X-12 with logistic transformation, using factors forecast in December. The no-change share is the residual left from 100.