The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a leading indicator of economic activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector. Based on a survey of purchasing executives, a reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. It is highly regarded for its ability to provide early signals of changes in the broader economy and business cycle.
The index is derived from a monthly survey of approximately 300 purchasing managers across 18 industries. It is a composite index based on five sub-indicators: new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | — | 54.00 | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | 54.60 | 55.20 | -0.60 |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 55.60 | 54.00 | +1.60 |
| Jul 1, 2026 | 53.30 | 54.00 | -0.70 |
| Jun 1, 2026 | 54.00 | 53.00 | +1.00 |
| May 1, 2026 | 52.70 | 53.00 | -0.30 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | 52.70 | 52.50 | +0.20 |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 52.40 | 51.80 | +0.60 |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 52.60 | 48.50 | +4.10 |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 47.90 | 48.30 | -0.40 |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 48.20 | 48.60 | -0.40 |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 48.70 | 49.50 | -0.80 |
| Oct 1, 2025 | 49.10 | 49.00 | +0.10 |
| Sep 2, 2025 | 48.70 | 49.00 | -0.30 |
| Aug 1, 2025 | 48.00 | 49.50 | -1.50 |
| Jul 1, 2025 | 49.00 | 48.80 | +0.20 |
| Jun 2, 2025 | 48.50 | 49.50 | -1.00 |
| May 1, 2025 | 48.70 | 47.20 | +1.50 |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 49.00 | 49.50 | -0.50 |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 50.30 | 50.50 | -0.20 |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 50.90 | 49.80 | +1.10 |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 49.30 | 48.40 | +0.90 |
| Dec 2, 2024 | 48.40 | 47.50 | +0.90 |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 46.50 | 47.60 | -1.10 |
| Oct 1, 2024 | 47.20 | 47.50 | -0.30 |
| Sep 3, 2024 | 47.20 | 47.50 | -0.30 |
| Aug 1, 2024 | 46.80 | 48.80 | -2.00 |
| Jul 1, 2024 | 48.50 | 49.10 | -0.60 |
| Jun 3, 2024 | 48.70 | 49.60 | -0.90 |
| May 1, 2024 | 49.20 | 50.00 | -0.80 |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 50.30 | 48.40 | +1.90 |
| Mar 1, 2024 | 47.80 | 49.50 | -1.70 |
| Feb 1, 2024 | 49.10 | 47.00 | +2.10 |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 47.40 | 47.10 | +0.30 |
| Dec 1, 2023 | 46.70 | 47.60 | -0.90 |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 46.70 | 49.00 | -2.30 |
| Oct 2, 2023 | 49.00 | 47.80 | +1.20 |
| Sep 1, 2023 | 47.60 | 47.00 | +0.60 |
| Aug 1, 2023 | 46.40 | 46.80 | -0.40 |
| Jul 3, 2023 | 46.00 | 47.00 | -1.00 |
| Jun 1, 2023 | 46.90 | 47.00 | -0.10 |
| May 1, 2023 | 47.10 | 46.80 | +0.30 |
| Apr 3, 2023 | 46.30 | 47.50 | -1.20 |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 47.70 | 48.00 | -0.30 |
| Feb 1, 2023 | 47.40 | 48.00 | -0.60 |
| Jan 4, 2023 | 48.40 | 48.50 | -0.10 |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 49.00 | 49.80 | -0.80 |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 50.20 | 50.00 | +0.20 |
| Oct 3, 2022 | 50.90 | 52.20 | -1.30 |
| Sep 1, 2022 | 52.80 | 52.00 | +0.80 |
| Aug 1, 2022 | 52.80 | 52.00 | +0.80 |
