Industrial Production YoY

Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY compares the Federal Reserve seasonally adjusted manufacturing index with the same month one year earlier. Seasonal adjustment removes predictable calendar effects while real output means inflation adjusted production volume. The result is a 12-month percent change that shows whether factory output stands above or below its year-earlier level.

The universe is manufacturing under a standard industry classification plus logging and parts of publishing. It excludes services, construction and agriculture by definition. It is not nominal sales, employment or a sentiment poll such as ISM manufacturing PMI with a 50 expansion line.

Source data cover the reference month. Worker hours come from the pay period containing day 12. Physical output is compiled as daily averages by working days in the month.

The first estimate appears around day 15 of the following month at 9:15 Eastern. The timetable is announced in advance and the yearly benchmark revision is issued at noon. Each month stays open for 6 estimates as source data arrive. Missing values are estimated and percent changes use unrounded seasonally adjusted indexes.

The same G.17 release shows total output with market and industry detail. It also shows capacity use as adjusted output divided by sustainable maximum capacity times 100. Tables mark first and revised values so readers can track updates.

Manufacturing as a whole carries a weight of 75.89 in total industry output. Its moves reflect three parts defined by product life and source industry.

• Durable manufacturing, 39.04: long-lived goods such as machinery, electronics, vehicles, metals and furniture.

• Nondurable manufacturing, 35.34: shorter-lived goods such as food, chemicals, paper, plastics and petroleum products.

• Other manufacturing, 1.51: logging plus newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing outside standard manufacturing.

In one past pandemic stress episode factories slowed or closed through the month. Total output fell 11.2 percent in its largest monthly drop in index history.

Manufacturing fell 13.7 percent with motor vehicles and parts down more than 70 percent while other manufacturing fell 10.3 percent. Total output stood at 92.6 percent of the base-year average and 15.0 percent below its year-earlier level. Manufacturing stood 18.0 percent below its year-earlier level and capacity use fell to 64.9 percent.

1. Annual benchmark: Census value added plus materials minus resales becomes real output with yearly chain-type prices.

1. Monthly indicator: Where available use physical counts such as tons or unit counts from 297 series. Else use worker hours adjusted for productivity and temporary help.

1. Index relatives: Express physical output as daily averages by working days and hours as monthly averages. Express each as a share of the base-year average.

1. Seasonal adjustment: Adjust every series with Census X-13ARIMA-SEATS which removes calendar effects and outliers before aggregation.

1. Fisher aggregation: Combine indexes with Fisher chain-type value-added weights using prior-month and given-month values. For example two industries at 100 and 100 with values 70 and 30 move to 102 and 99 for combined growth near 1.11 percent.

1. Percent changes: Divide the adjusted index by its year-earlier value minus 1 times 100 for YoY from unrounded indexes. Divide adjusted output by capacity times 100 for use.