Factory Orders MoM

Factory Orders MoM is the seasonally adjusted monthly percent change in new orders for United States manufactured goods. The Census Bureau publishes it through the M3 survey for the Department of Commerce. The survey covers manufacturing firms with annual shipments of 500 million dollars or more plus a supplemental panel of other makers with about 3000 companies.

Orders are net of cancellations and cover binding commitments for immediate or future delivery. Values reflect nominal dollars with seasonal adjustment but without price adjustment. Orders exclude semiconductor manufacturing and industries with mostly immediate deliveries. Higher orders mean stronger demand and future production commitments while lower orders mean softer demand with no expansion threshold.

The Full Report appears at 10:00 AM Eastern about 23 working days after the reference month and covers durable plus nondurable manufacturing. The Advance durables report appears at 8:30 AM Eastern about 18 working days after the reference month and covers durable goods only. Data describe calendar month activity reported early in the following month with responses due by 10 business days under voluntary Title 13 authority.

Each release shows shipments alongside unfilled orders plus total inventories by stage and shipments ratios with detailed tables in adjusted and unadjusted form. Corrections received in time appear in the Full Report while later corrections appear in the following Advance Report. Older revisions align in the annual benchmark with seasonal models reviewed each year.

Headline moves reflect volatile transportation and durables against steadier nondurables plus shifts in shipments backlog and stocks.

• New orders, durable goods industries: long lead time products like machinery and electronics that drive most headline volatility.

• New orders, nondurable goods industries: steadier food petroleum coal and chemical orders with immediate delivery industries not collected.

• Transportation equipment new orders: aircraft motor vehicle and ship orders that often explain much of a large headline swing.

• Shipments: dollar value sold net of discounts and freight showing sales activity against future commitments.

• Unfilled orders: end of month backlog equal to prior backlog plus new orders less sales buffering orders and shipments.

• Total inventories: end of month stocks with materials pipeline and finished stages showing supply on hand.

Breakdowns excluding transportation and excluding defense strip lumpy aircraft vehicle and defense orders for a core demand read. A large headline gain can come mostly from one volatile component so readers check breadth against durables nondurables and shipments.

1. Link relative estimation: Universe estimate equals prior month universe times matched reporter ratio using only firms present both months. Example with prior 500.0 and ratio 1.02 gives 510.0 billion dollars.

1. New orders identity: Universe new orders equal estimated shipments plus change in unfilled orders capturing same month filled orders and cancellations. Example with shipments 510.0 plus backlog gain 10.0 equals orders 520.0 billion dollars.

1. Stage of fabrication: Total inventories anchor controls with missing stage detail allocated proportionally across raw pipeline and finished stocks.

1. Seasonal and trading day adjustment: X-13ARIMA-SEATS divides unadjusted detail by concurrent factors then rebuilds orders from adjusted shipments and backlog change. Trading effects adjust shipments except tobacco and turbine makers.

1. Month to month percent change: Headline equals 100 times period less prior divided by prior labeled virtually unchanged when absolute change is below 0.05%. Example with 520.0 versus 505.0 equals about 3.0%.

1. Benchmark and revision overlay: Late reports join revised estimates with older revisions aligned yearly to census and survey benchmarks.