Factory Orders ex Transportation

The Census Bureau monthly M3 report (Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders) includes new orders (buyer commitments) excluding transportation equipment. It measures U.S. factory demand in dollars, without price adjustment, since 1957. Coverage focuses on makers with $500 million or more in yearly shipments across 89 industry categories. It subtracts volatile transportation equipment from all orders to show core commitments and future production signals.

It covers the calendar month just ended, with 2 releases per cycle on fixed working-day rules; dates shift with weekends and holidays. The Advance arrives at 8:30 a.m. Eastern about 18 working days after month-end. The Full Report arrives at 10:00 a.m. Eastern about 23 working days after month-end with narrative and detailed tables. Tables show seasonally adjusted (calendar-smoothed) and unadjusted levels and monthly percent changes in millions of dollars, plus revisions to earlier months.

Core demand reflects durable (long-lasting goods) and nondurable (quick-use goods) groups after removing lumpy transportation equipment.

• Transportation equipment (excluded): autos, trucks, aircraft, ships and rail, whose large lumpy orders can swing the all-manufacturing headline.
• Machinery: farm, construction and industrial gear that signals business spending on equipment.
• Primary and fabricated metals: steel, aluminum, foundries, stampings and structural parts that feed downstream durable makers.
• Computers, electronics and electrical equipment: computers, communications gear, appliances and batteries, excluding semiconductor new orders by rule.
• Nondurable industries: food, chemicals, petroleum and coal products, paper, plastics and rubber, mostly short-cycle price-sensitive demand.
• Wood, minerals, furniture and miscellaneous products: lumber, cement, glass, furniture and medical gear as small late-cycle contributors.

The September 2024 Full Report, released November 4, 2024, showed all-manufacturing orders at $584.2 billion, down 0.5% on the month. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.1% to $488.8 billion, so core demand rose while the headline fell. Transportation equipment drove the drop, down $3.1 billion or 3.1% to $95.4 billion, showing how aircraft swings can flip the headline.

1. Collection: Census collects dollar reports for the calendar month, editing errors and imputing missing replies from history.
2. Link-relative estimation: Prior universe levels for shipments (goods sent), unfilled orders (order backlog) and inventories (stocks held) grow by the matched-panel change ratio. Example: $100.0m matched in August and $102.0m in September gives 1.02.
3. New-orders derivation: Industry new orders equal shipments plus the change in backlog, net of cancellations and same-month fillings. Example: $510.0m shipments plus a $5.0m backlog rise gives $515.0m orders.
4. Subtraction: Ex-transportation orders equal all-manufacturing orders minus transportation-equipment orders, with semiconductors excluded throughout. Example: $515.0m minus $90.0m transport leaves $425.0m core.
5. Seasonal adjustment: Detail industries are divided by concurrent X-13ARIMA-SEATS factors, then adjusted orders are rebuilt from shipments and backlog change. Trading-day effects are removed where diagnostics warrant. Example: $425.0m divided by 1.02 gives $416.7m adjusted.
6. Percent change and revisions: The monthly move divides the adjusted change by the prior month, in millions of dollars. Late reports are added and history is benchmarked to the Economic Census and Annual Survey. Example: $416.7m against $415.0m equals +0.4%.