Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index

The Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index is the revenue gauge in the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey (TSSOS).

The survey is a monthly poll run by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

It covers Texas private services only, spanning transport, warehousing, utilities, information, finance, professional, education, health, leisure, hospitality, retail and wholesale.

It excludes government and manufacturing, and it is not a national measure.

It is a diffusion index, a score of how widespread revenue gains or losses are, not dollar sales, with data collected since January 2007.

Panelists receive the survey by email around mid-month and reply online within 7 business days on change since the prior month beyond normal seasonal moves.

It appears monthly on the Dallas Fed website the day after the final-Monday manufacturing survey, normally the last Tuesday, starting at 9:30 a.m. CT.

Each release includes services and Texas Retail Outlook Survey write-ups on labor, prices, outlook, activity and uncertainty, plus tables, charts, comments and history.

It also asks about expectations six months ahead.

Each release prints the next date, and the index takes no monthly revision except each January when new seasonal factors slightly restate history.

Revenue moves with hiring, hours, pay, costs, prices and broad sentiment captured elsewhere in the same survey.

• Revenue: direction of the firm's revenue, with retail sales and inventories for retailers, versus the prior month.
• Employees and hours: direction of headcount, part-time staff and average workweek versus the prior month.
• Wages and prices: direction of pay and benefits, input costs and selling prices versus the prior month.
• Capital spending: direction of capital expenditures versus the prior month.
• Outlook and activity: whether company outlook and general business activity improved, held steady or worsened.
• Uncertainty: whether outlook uncertainty increased, stayed the same or decreased.

In the March 31, 2020 release, revenue fell from 14.0 to -67.0, an all-time low, as only 2.4% reported gains and 69.4% reported losses.

Employment, hours, activity and company outlook also hit record lows, uncertainty jumped, wages turned negative and selling prices dropped sharply.

Retail sales fell to -82.6 with under 1% reporting gains, and in the April 28, 2020 release revenue held near -65.4 while employment sank further.

The episode shows breadth, not dollars, and deeply negative readings can persist without marking a bottom.

Future revenue and employment expectations also hit all-time lows, showing the survey moves before official data.

1. Collect shares: For each gauge, count the % reporting an increase, no change and a decrease for the month.
2. Subtract: The index equals % reporting an increase less % reporting a decrease, so 16% up and 32% down gives -16.0 and signals contraction.
3. Count every reply equally: Replies carry no weight for firm size, so a small firm moves the score as much as a large firm.
4. Adjust for seasons: Respondents skip normal seasonal moves, then the Dallas Fed applies Census X12 where needed. The three parts are adjusted separately and normalized to 100, and factors update each January.
5. Read the sign: Above 0 means more gainers than losers versus the prior month, below 0 means more losers, and 0 means an even split.