Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is the market name for General Business Activity, a diffusion index meaning a score built from share differences. It comes from the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey, a monthly poll by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas of Texas factory executives. The panel covers nearly 140 firms chosen to mirror Texas manufacturing employment, with about 100 replies each cycle. Answers record only direction as Increase, No Change, or Decrease, not volumes or values.

The headline gauges perceived broader conditions, while Production gauges factory output direction. Production is the publisher-stated key gauge of state manufacturing conditions. All figures cover Texas only, not national manufacturing. The two gauges can diverge, so output is read from Production, not from the headline.

Questionnaires go out electronically in the middle of each month, and respondents have 7 business days to reply. Results appear once each month on a preannounced date near the end of the reference month. Publishing starts at 9:30 AM CT, or 10:30 AM ET. The date shifts when a holiday falls on the planned day.

Each release brings a narrative summary plus results tables for current conditions and expectations 6 months ahead. Tables show index values with shares for Increase, No Change, and Decrease, plus series averages. Releases also bring charts, edited anonymous comments, special questions, history files, and the next release date.

Seasonal factors are revised once each year, with slight changes to past adjusted values, while unadjusted values remain available. Readings are judged against 0 and against series averages.

No single formula weights parts, so each gauge moves on its own survey balance. Each indicator is asked about the current month and about expectations 6 months ahead, except uncertainty about outlook which covers the current month only.

• Production: factory output direction, the key state gauge.

• Volume of new orders: demand inflow direction.

• Number of employees: employment direction.

• Prices paid for raw materials: input price pressure.

• Prices received for finished goods: output price pressure.

• Company outlook: each executive view of its own company prospects.

Sharp shocks can push the headline near its floor while output falls less, so sentiment can run below physical activity. That gap is why output is read from Production.

• Classify answers: each firm is sorted as Increase, No Change, or Decrease for each gauge.

• Adjust: seasonal gauges have their shares adjusted separately with a Census Bureau method, then scaled to sum to 100.

• Subtract shares: the index equals share reporting Increase minus share reporting Decrease, on a scale from -100 to 100.

• Illustrate: if 100 firms vote with 26 Increase, 50 No Change, and 24 Decrease, the index is 26 minus 24, or 2.0. A positive value means more firms grew than shrank.