Composite PMI

The S&P Global US Composite PMI, also called the Composite Output Index, tracks direction of US private-sector output. S&P Global runs it through its Market Intelligence division as part of PMI surveys covering more than 40 countries. It arrives monthly and covers manufacturing plus services, leaving out the public sector. The panel holds around 800 manufacturers and around 400 service firms, sorted by sector and workforce size on GDP shares.

It is a diffusion gauge of breadth of change, not a count of output volumes and not GDP itself. Its price parts record which way reported prices move, not inflation rates. Readings run on a 0 to 100 scale, with above 50 marking growth and below 50 marking decline. Some earlier releases carry the IHS Markit brand.

Replies are gathered in the second half of each month, with flash replies near the middle. Each reply states whether conditions rose, held steady or fell against the previous month. The joint flash release lands in the second half of the reference month with all three headlines. Final manufacturing follows on the first business day of the next month.

Final services plus the final composite follow on the third business day of the next month. Releases go out at 09:45 Eastern under embargo as market-sensitive material. The flash rests on around 85% of replies, so it previews the final rather than replacing it. Survey answers face no revision after publication, while seasonal factors may see updates.

The flash pack spans orders, output, hiring, backlogs, costs, charges, delivery times, stocks and expectations, plus a PMI GDP chart. Final manufacturing adds full factory detail, and final services adds full services detail with the final composite.

The composite blends two output gauges, and services hold the larger GDP-based share.

• Manufacturing Output Index: captures whether each factory output sits higher, level or lower than one month back.
• Services Business Activity Index: captures whether each firm business volume sits higher, level or lower than one month back.

Fresh orders, export orders, hiring, backlogs, input costs, charges, delivery times, stocks and expectations add color but feed no composite weight. Markets track it since it prints early each month, ahead of government data. Central banks, trading desks and business planners favor it for rate and spending calls.

1. Diffusion index: for each item, add the higher share to 0.5 times the steady share on a 0 to 100 scale. Example: 30% higher with 50% steady and 20% lower gives 55.0, since 30 plus 0.5 times 50 equals 55.0.
2. Manufacturing headline PMI: average five parts as 0.3 orders plus 0.25 output plus 0.2 staff plus 0.15 flipped delivery times plus 0.1 stocks. Flip delivery times so delays lift the gauge like gains elsewhere.
3. Services headline: take the Business Activity diffusion gauge straight with no weighting.
4. Composite Output Index: average factory output and services activity on official GDP shares, where services rule. Example: 52.0 and 54.0 at 20% and 80% shares gives 53.6.
5. Seasonal adjustment: correct gauges for routine seasonal shape after the math, naming no outside program.