The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure in the United States. It is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity, categorized into production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories. A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.
The index is calculated as the first principal component of 85 existing monthly indicators of economic activity. This statistical method extracts a single common factor that explains the greatest shared variance among the underlying data points.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | -0.08 | 0.10 | -0.18 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | 0.06 | 0.14 | -0.08 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | -0.10 | 0.12 | -0.22 |
| May 26, 2026 | 0.19 | -0.30 | +0.49 |
| Apr 23, 2026 | -0.15 | 0.20 | -0.35 |
| Mar 23, 2026 | -0.11 | 0.27 | -0.38 |
| Feb 23, 2026 | 0.18 | 0.30 | -0.12 |
| Jan 26, 2026 | -0.42 | -0.20 | -0.22 |
| Dec 22, 2025 | -0.21 | -0.40 | +0.19 |
| Sep 22, 2025 | -0.12 | -0.17 | +0.05 |
| Aug 25, 2025 | -0.19 | -0.20 | +0.01 |
| Jul 24, 2025 | -0.10 | -0.10 | 0.00 |
| Jun 26, 2025 | -0.28 | -0.10 | -0.18 |
| May 22, 2025 | -0.25 | -0.20 | -0.05 |
| Apr 24, 2025 | -0.03 | 0.11 | -0.14 |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 0.18 | 0.08 | +0.10 |
| Feb 24, 2025 | -0.03 | 0.21 | -0.24 |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 0.15 | 0.10 | +0.05 |
| Dec 23, 2024 | -0.12 | -0.10 | -0.02 |
| Nov 25, 2024 | -0.40 | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| Oct 24, 2024 | -0.28 | 0.20 | -0.48 |
| Sep 23, 2024 | 0.12 | -0.20 | +0.32 |
| Aug 22, 2024 | -0.34 | 0.03 | -0.37 |
| Jul 22, 2024 | 0.05 | -0.09 | +0.14 |
| Jun 25, 2024 | 0.18 | -0.40 | +0.58 |
| May 23, 2024 | -0.23 | 0.16 | -0.39 |
| Apr 22, 2024 | 0.15 | 0.09 | +0.06 |
| Mar 25, 2024 | 0.05 | -0.90 | +0.95 |
| Feb 22, 2024 | -0.30 | -0.19 | -0.11 |
| Jan 25, 2024 | -0.15 | 0.10 | -0.25 |
| Dec 26, 2023 | 0.03 | -0.30 | +0.33 |
| Nov 21, 2023 | -0.49 | -0.01 | -0.48 |
| Oct 23, 2023 | 0.02 | 0.05 | -0.03 |
| Sep 25, 2023 | -0.16 | 0.15 | -0.31 |
| Aug 24, 2023 | 0.12 | -0.40 | +0.52 |
| Jul 24, 2023 | -0.32 | 0.03 | -0.35 |
| Jun 22, 2023 | -0.15 | 0.15 | -0.30 |
| May 25, 2023 | 0.07 | 0.20 | -0.13 |
| Apr 24, 2023 | -0.19 | -0.02 | -0.17 |
| Mar 23, 2023 | -0.19 | 0.26 | -0.45 |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 0.23 | -0.25 | +0.48 |
| Jan 26, 2023 | -0.51 | -0.18 | -0.33 |
| Nov 21, 2022 | -0.05 | 0.10 | -0.15 |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 0.10 | 0.12 | -0.02 |
| Aug 22, 2022 | 0.27 | -0.02 | +0.29 |
| Jul 25, 2022 | -0.19 | 0.05 | -0.24 |
| Jun 21, 2022 | 0.01 | 0.32 | -0.31 |
| May 23, 2022 | 0.47 | 0.35 | +0.12 |
| Apr 25, 2022 | 0.44 | 0.40 | +0.04 |
| Mar 21, 2022 | 0.51 | 0.75 | -0.24 |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | -0.02 | 0.06 | +0.08 ↑ |
| Jun 25, 2026 | -0.10 | -0.10 | 0 ↓ |
| May 26, 2026 | 0.14 | 0.19 | +0.05 ↑ |
| Apr 23, 2026 | -0.20 | -0.15 | +0.05 ↑ |
