This indicator reflects the median expectation of consumers regarding the rate of inflation over the next 12 months. It is a key forward-looking metric that influences consumer behavior and central bank policy. High inflation expectations can become self-fulfilling as consumers accelerate purchases and demand higher wages.
Calculated from the University of Michigan's monthly consumer survey where respondents provide their estimate of the percentage change in prices for the upcoming year.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | — | 3.90 | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 4.00 | 4.30 | -0.30 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 4.00 | 4.30 | -0.30 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | 4.20 | — | — |
| Aug 14, 2026 | 4.30 | 4.10 | +0.20 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 4.20 | 4.30 | -0.10 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 4.60 | — | — |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 4.60 | 4.60 | 0.00 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 4.60 | 4.60 | 0.00 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 4.60 | 4.90 | -0.30 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 4.60 | 4.80 | -0.20 |
| May 22, 2026 | 4.80 | 4.50 | +0.30 |
| May 22, 2026 | 4.80 | 4.50 | +0.30 |
| May 8, 2026 | 4.50 | 4.90 | -0.40 |
| May 8, 2026 | 4.50 | 4.80 | -0.30 |
| Apr 24, 2026 | 4.70 | 4.80 | -0.10 |
| Apr 24, 2026 | 4.70 | 4.80 | -0.10 |
| Apr 10, 2026 | 4.80 | 4.00 | +0.80 |
| Mar 27, 2026 | 3.80 | 3.40 | +0.40 |
| Mar 13, 2026 | 3.40 | 3.90 | -0.50 |
| Feb 20, 2026 | 3.40 | 3.50 | -0.10 |
| Feb 6, 2026 | 3.50 | 4.00 | -0.50 |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 4.00 | 4.20 | -0.20 |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 4.20 | 4.10 | +0.10 |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 4.10 | 4.40 | -0.30 |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 4.50 | 4.70 | -0.20 |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 4.70 | 4.60 | +0.10 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 4.60 | 4.60 | 0.00 |
| Oct 10, 2025 | 4.60 | 4.50 | +0.10 |
| Sep 26, 2025 | 4.70 | 4.80 | -0.10 |
| Sep 12, 2025 | 4.80 | 4.60 | +0.20 |
| Aug 29, 2025 | 4.80 | 4.90 | -0.10 |
| Aug 15, 2025 | 4.90 | 4.80 | +0.10 |
| Aug 1, 2025 | 4.50 | 4.40 | +0.10 |
| Jul 18, 2025 | 4.40 | 4.70 | -0.30 |
| Jun 27, 2025 | 5.00 | 5.10 | -0.10 |
| Jun 13, 2025 | 5.10 | 6.60 | -1.50 |
| May 30, 2025 | 6.60 | 7.30 | -0.70 |
| May 16, 2025 | 7.30 | 6.60 | +0.70 |
| Apr 25, 2025 | 6.50 | 6.70 | -0.20 |
| Apr 11, 2025 | 6.70 | 5.00 | +1.70 |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 5.00 | 4.90 | +0.10 |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 4.90 | 4.40 | +0.50 |
| Feb 21, 2025 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 0.00 |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 4.30 | 3.40 | +0.90 |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 0.00 |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 3.30 | 3.00 | +0.30 |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2.80 | 2.90 | -0.10 |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | 4.30 | 4.20 | -0.10 ↓ |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 4.20 | 4.60 | +0.40 ↑ |
