Michigan Inflation Expectations

Michigan Inflation Expectations are 2 medians from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. The year ahead median captures expected change in prices in general over 12 months. The long run median captures expected yearly change over 5 to 10 years.

The program covers adults 18 and older in the coterminous US, which means 48 states plus DC, through a monthly rotating panel. It uses web interviews from address based sampling and includes about 50 core questions. It measures expected prices, not actual inflation, and it covers the nation, not Michigan only or professional forecasts.

The publisher is the University of Michigan Survey Research Center within the Institute for Social Research. Arabic outlets refer to it under consumer confidence and cite Michigan survey research in the United States.

Each cycle brings 2 releases, a preliminary release and a final release. Interviewing runs through the week before each release, and holiday periods can shift timing. Each release includes sentiment (ICS), conditions (ICC) and expectations (ICE) indexes plus a data booklet with about 50 core questions.

The program targets about 1000 interviews for the final release and about 420 cases for the preliminary release. The final supersedes the preliminary without routine later revision, and public series update after 4 weeks. Readers track medians for level and direction with no threshold for action, in morning Eastern Time.

Coverage stays national through address sampling, and the design keeps each household with equal selection chance.

The release holds 2 medians, each capturing a different horizon of expected price change.

• Year ahead expectations: capture median expected change in prices in general over 12 months.
• Long run expectations: capture median expected average change per year over 5 to 10 years.

Short horizon views shift with felt price moves, while long horizon views show anchoring when they hold a narrow line. Direction and level matter more than any single cutoff, and no buy or sell line guides reading.

The method follows set steps that shape the median and limit outlier sway.

• Ask direction, then percent: The 12 months question asks if up, down, or same for prices in general, then percent, beyond 95% capped.
• Ask long horizon percent: The 5 to 10 years question asks about prices 5 to 10 years ahead, then asks percent per year.
• Probe same answers: Interviewers probe same answers, moving same rate replies to up for a percent.

• Handle missing: Refusals and no direction answers are dropped, while partial up or down answers without a percent are spread across observed codes.
• Cap extremes: Extreme answers are capped at 10% below and 50% above, not deleted, which leaves the median unchanged.
• Report: The headline is the interpolated median, spread is the middle 50% range, and weights build aggregates with no seasonal adjustment.