This indicator measures the median expectation of consumers regarding the average annual inflation rate over the next five to ten years. It is a critical metric for the Federal Reserve to determine if long-term inflation expectations remain 'anchored'. Stable long-term expectations are essential for maintaining price stability and economic growth.
Derived from responses to the University of Michigan's consumer survey specifically asking about price changes over a 5-to-10-year horizon.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | — | 3.20 | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 0.00 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | 3.30 | 3.20 | +0.10 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 0.00 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 3.30 | 3.10 | +0.20 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 3.30 | 3.40 | -0.10 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 3.40 | 3.80 | -0.40 |
| May 22, 2026 | 3.90 | 3.40 | +0.50 |
| May 8, 2026 | 3.40 | 3.50 | -0.10 |
| Apr 24, 2026 | 3.50 | 3.40 | +0.10 |
| Apr 10, 2026 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 0.00 |
| Mar 27, 2026 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 0.00 |
| Mar 13, 2026 | 3.20 | 3.40 | -0.20 |
| Feb 20, 2026 | 3.30 | 3.40 | -0.10 |
| Feb 6, 2026 | 3.40 | 3.30 | +0.10 |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3.30 | 3.40 | -0.10 |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 3.40 | 3.10 | +0.30 |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 0.00 |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 3.20 | 3.30 | -0.10 |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 3.40 | 3.60 | -0.20 |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 3.60 | 3.90 | -0.30 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 3.90 | 3.70 | +0.20 |
| Oct 10, 2025 | 3.70 | 3.60 | +0.10 |
| Sep 26, 2025 | 3.70 | 3.90 | -0.20 |
| Sep 12, 2025 | 3.90 | 3.50 | +0.40 |
| Aug 29, 2025 | 3.50 | 3.90 | -0.40 |
| Aug 15, 2025 | 3.90 | 3.60 | +0.30 |
| Aug 1, 2025 | 3.40 | 3.60 | -0.20 |
| Jul 18, 2025 | 3.60 | 4.00 | -0.40 |
| Jun 27, 2025 | 4.00 | 4.10 | -0.10 |
| Jun 13, 2025 | 4.10 | 4.20 | -0.10 |
| May 30, 2025 | 4.20 | 4.60 | -0.40 |
| May 16, 2025 | 4.60 | 4.50 | +0.10 |
| Apr 25, 2025 | 4.40 | 4.40 | 0.00 |
| Apr 11, 2025 | 4.40 | 4.10 | +0.30 |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 4.10 | 3.90 | +0.20 |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3.90 | 3.60 | +0.30 |
| Feb 21, 2025 | 3.50 | 3.30 | +0.20 |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 0.00 |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3.20 | 3.30 | -0.10 |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 3.30 | 3.20 | +0.10 |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3.00 | 3.10 | -0.10 |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 0.00 |
| Nov 22, 2024 | 3.20 | 3.10 | +0.10 |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 3.10 | 3.00 | +0.10 |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 3.00 | 3.10 | -0.10 |
| Sep 27, 2024 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 0.00 |
| Sep 13, 2024 | 3.10 | 3.00 | +0.10 |
| Aug 30, 2024 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Aug 16, 2024 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
